Newcastle-under-Lyme
West Midlands · County constituency · Newcastle-under-Lyme borough
About the Newcastle-under-Lyme constituency
Newcastle-under-Lyme is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Adam Jogee (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.4% to 27.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,069 votes on a 58.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 36.4% and Labour on 27.2%, a margin of 9.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Newcastle-under-Lyme? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newcastle-under-Lyme vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newcastle-under-Lyme
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newcastle-under-Lyme within Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme sits entirely within Newcastle-under-Lyme Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audley | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 42.6%vs Conservative 22.9% | Labour→Reform +22.1pp | 38.4% |
| Bradwell | Labour 44.5%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Reform 49.5%vs Labour 23.9% | Labour→Reform +24.0pp | 36.2% |
| Clayton | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | May 2026 Reform 35.9%vs Conservative 33.7% | Labour→Reform +17.6pp | 40.3% |
| Crackley & Red Street | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Reform 52.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | Labour→Reform +27.0pp | 36.6% |
| Cross Heath | Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 45.6%vs Labour 29.8% | Labour→Reform +21.7pp | 34.4% |
| Holditch & Chesterton | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 21.7% | May 2026 Reform 53.9%vs Labour 32.9% | Labour→Reform +23.3pp | 27.0% |
| Keele | Labour 58.7%vs Conservative 20.5% | May 2026 Labour 30.2%vs Green 27.6% | Labour share -28.5pp | 47.1% |
| Knutton | Labour 42.1%vs Reform 26.4% | May 2026 Reform 66.2%vs Labour 23.8% | Labour→Reform +29.1pp | 27.4% |
| Madeley & Betley | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 31.4% | May 2026 Conservative 46.4%vs Reform 29.3% | Conservative share +12.6pp | 43.9% |
| May Bank | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 30.1% | Labour→Conservative +7.8pp | 41.6% |
| Silverdale | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 27.9% | May 2026 Reform 53.6%vs Labour 24.9% | Labour→Reform +24.3pp | 34.5% |
| Thistleberry | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 27.4% | May 2026 Conservative 38.7%vs Reform 26.5% | Labour→Conservative +16.0pp | 39.5% |
| Town | Labour 44.5%vs Reform 25.1% | May 2026 Reform 28.3%vs Labour 28.2% | Labour→Reform +9.7pp | 29.7% |
| Westbury Park & Northwood | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 31.1% | May 2026 Conservative 40.0%vs Reform 33.5% | Labour→Conservative +14.6pp | 44.7% |
| Westlands | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 34.6% | May 2026 Conservative 45.0%vs Reform 25.1% | Conservative share +10.0pp | 48.3% |
| Wolstanton | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 24.9% | May 2026 Reform 41.6%vs Labour 28.5% | Labour→Reform +15.4pp | 38.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newcastle-under-Lyme at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newcastle-under-Lyme at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Paul Farrelly | 38.0% | 34.4% | 19.6% | 1,552 | 62.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Paul Farrelly | 38.4% | 36.9% | 4.2% | 650 | 63.6%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Paul Farrelly | 48.2% | 48.1% | 3.7% | 30 | 66.8%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Aaron Bell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.4% | 52.8% | 5.6% | 8,265 | 67.6%+0.8 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Adam Jogee | 40.4% | 27.6% | 5.0% | 5,069 | 58.4%-9.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newcastle-under-Lyme
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newcastle-under-Lyme. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave61.6 / 63.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.5 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↑Leave61.6 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.5 / 27.1vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave61.6 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.5 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↑Leave61.6 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.5 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.5 / 28.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↑Leave61.6 / 58.1vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.