Warrington North
North West · County constituency · Warrington borough
About the Warrington North constituency
Warrington North is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Charlotte Nichols (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.8% to 23.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,190 votes on a 56.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.3% and Reform UK on 33.1%, a margin of 10.1 points.
Who lives in Warrington North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Warrington North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Warrington North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Warrington North within Warrington
Warrington North sits entirely within Warrington Council. Warrington was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Warrington | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birchwood | Labour 47.4%vs Reform 22.4% | 2024 Labour 63.6%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 33.0% |
| Burtonwood and Winwick | Labour 49.5%vs Reform 22.3% | 2024 Labour 47.1%vs Independent 41.0% | - | 35.0% |
| Culcheth, Glazebury and Croft | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 22.0% | 2024 Labour 55.7%vs Conservative 44.3% | - | 40.0% |
| Fairfield and Howley | Labour 50.8%vs Reform 24.0% | 2024 Labour 82.0%vs Reform 9.9% | - | 22.0% |
| Orford | Labour 46.2%vs Reform 26.0% | 2024 Labour 65.8%vs Independent 17.9% | - | 23.0% |
| Poplars and Hulme | Labour 47.4%vs Reform 26.5% | 2024 Labour 80.0%vs Reform 11.8% | - | 19.0% |
| Poulton North | Labour 47.5%vs Reform 24.3% | 2024 Labour 83.5%vs Conservative 16.5% | - | 27.0% |
| Poulton South | Labour 45.2%vs Reform 25.9% | 2024 Labour 78.8%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | 28.0% |
| Rixton and Woolston | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 21.6% | 2024 Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 33.0% |
| Westbrook | Labour 45.3%vs Reform 25.0% | 2024 Labour 75.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | - | 31.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Warrington North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Warrington North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Helen Jones | 45.5% | 30.2% | 20.8% | 6,771 | 62.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Helen Jones | 47.8% | 28.2% | 4.1% | 8,923 | 63.0%+0.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Helen Jones | 56.4% | 36.6% | 2.5% | 9,582 | 67.5%+4.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Charlotte Nichols 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 44.2% | 40.9% | 6.6% | 1,513 | 64.3%-3.2 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Charlotte Nichols | 46.8% | 16.2% | 6.8% | 9,190 | 56.7%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Warrington North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Warrington North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate28.3 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 16.1vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.1 / 56.7vs 53.2
- ↑Leave58.1 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.3 / 30.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.3 / 29.1vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.1 / 56.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.3 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.1 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.3 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.1 / 58.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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