Constituency profile

Wrexham

Wales · County constituency · Wrexham borough

Andrew Ranger MP
Sitting MP

Andrew Ranger

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Wales
County constituency, Wrexham council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLCL
Labour 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
57.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +1.6pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)
WelshLeave-leaning

About the Wrexham constituency

Wrexham is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Andrew Ranger (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.2% to 24.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,948 votes on a 57.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 23.3% and Plaid Cymru on 21.7%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Wrexham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
30.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
63.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
36.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Wrexham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 5,948 votes (14.7pp) · turnout 57.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wrexham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Senedd 2026 layer

How Wrexham voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Wrexham sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Fflint Wrecsam. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituencyShare of WrexhamWinnerRunner-upSeats (6 per constituency)
Fflint Wrecsam99%Reform UK 36.2%Plaid Cymru 26.3%2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wrexham within Wrexham

Wrexham sits entirely within Wrexham Council. Wrexham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Wrexham
62 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
18 Jun 2026Acton & Maesydre
Wrexham
PC HOLDPC 39% Ref 34% Lab 11%
18 Jun 2026Grosvenor
Wrexham
PC HOLDPC 44% Ref 22% Lab 20%
18 Jun 2026Queensway
Wrexham
PC HOLDPC 41% Ref 37% Lab 16%
1 Mar 2023Smithfield
Wrexham
PC HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Acton and MaesydreLabour 45.1%vs Conservative 20.0%2022 Plaid Cymru 48.9%vs Labour 20.7%--
Bangor Is-y-CoedConservative 40.8%vs Labour 30.5%2022 Conservative 53.4%vs Lib Dem 37.1%--
Borras ParkLabour 37.4%vs Conservative 22.4%2017 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 25.2%--
Bronington and HanmerConservative 37.7%vs Labour 30.6%2022 Conservative 52.0%vs Independent 48.0%--
BrymboLabour 41.9%vs Conservative 23.1%2022 Independent 67.9%vs Labour 32.1%--
Bryn CefnLabour 36.3%vs Conservative 32.2%2022 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 35.4%--
BrynyffynnonLabour 37.4%vs Conservative 23.2%2022 Independent 44.0%vs Labour 33.6%--
CartrefleLabour 38.9%vs Reform 24.1%2017 Independent 73.6%vs Plaid Cymru 16.1%--
CoedpoethLabour 48.9%vs Conservative 20.6%2022 Labour 57.5%vs Independent 24.9%--
ErddigConservative 39.3%vs Labour 33.2%2022 Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 20.9%--
Garden VillageLabour 37.7%vs Conservative 22.1%2017 Independent 94.9%vs Labour 5.1%--
Gresford East and WestConservative 39.6%vs Labour 27.8%2022 Conservative 66.6%vs Plaid Cymru 33.4%--
GrosvenorLabour 38.5%vs Reform 18.2%2022 Plaid Cymru 63.4%vs Labour 26.0%--
GwenfroLabour 42.9%vs Reform 21.7%2022 Independent 85.2%vs Plaid Cymru 14.8%--
Gwersyllt EastLabour 41.7%vs Conservative 21.4%2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested--
Gwersyllt NorthLabour 37.7%vs Conservative 19.3%2022 Plaid Cymru 80.6%vs Conservative 19.4%--
Gwersyllt SouthLabour 37.2%vs Conservative 21.5%2022 Plaid Cymru 42.4%vs Independent 32.9%--
Gwersyllt WestLabour 40.0%vs Reform 19.7%2022 Plaid Cymru 35.3%vs Independent 28.7%--
HermitageLabour 50.8%vs Reform 17.1%2022 Labour 88.2%vs Conservative 11.8%--
HoltLabour 35.7%vs Conservative 23.2%2017 Conservative 63.1%vs Labour 36.9%--
Little ActonLabour 38.3%vs Conservative 35.1%2022 Independent 28.8%vs Labour 27.9%--
LlayLabour 43.4%vs Conservative 22.8%2022 Independent 53.7%vs Labour 35.6%--
MarchwielLabour 36.9%vs Conservative 26.2%2022 Independent 58.0%vs Plaid Cymru 22.8%--
Marford and HoseleyConservative 35.9%vs Labour 31.3%2022 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7%--
MineraLabour 40.6%vs Conservative 25.4%2022 Independent 47.7%vs Labour 37.2%--
New BroughtonLabour 39.7%vs Conservative 22.8%2022 Independent 52.8%vs Labour 22.5%--
OffaLabour 43.6%vs Conservative 19.0%2022 Plaid Cymru 30.4%vs Lib Dem 29.5%--
Overton and Maelor SouthLabour 40.4%vs Conservative 24.6%2022 Independent 91.0%vs Green 9.0%--
QueenswayLabour 37.3%vs Reform 23.6%2022 Plaid Cymru 74.8%vs Labour 22.0%--
RhosnesniLabour 38.2%vs Conservative 27.0%2022 Independent 48.3%vs Plaid Cymru 25.6%--
RossettConservative 38.8%vs Labour 30.1%2022 Conservative 74.8%vs Lib Dem 25.2%--
SmithfieldLabour 40.0%vs Reform 23.2%2022 Plaid Cymru 41.4%vs Labour 34.4%--
StanstyLabour 38.5%vs Reform 21.5%2017 Independent 92.6%vs Labour 6.3%--
WhitegateLabour 48.7%vs Reform 17.4%2022 Labour 61.2%vs Plaid Cymru 28.2%--
WynnstayLabour 46.4%vs Reform 23.3%2022 Labour 51.9%vs Independent 29.3%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wrexham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wrexham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdIan Lucas36.9%25.4%25.8%2.3% UKIP-3.4%3,65864.8%
2015Lab holdIan Lucas37.2%31.6%5.3%15.5% UKIP2.0%0.6%1,83164.2%-0.6
2017Lab holdIan Lucas48.9%43.7%2.5%---1,83270.4%+6.2
2019notionalConservative winnerSarah Atherton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary38.2%46.5%4.3%-0.9%10.1%3,93966.4%-4.0
2024Lab gain from ConAndrew Ranger39.2%24.5%4.4%17.1% Ref3.3%1.2%5,94857.5%-8.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Wrexham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wrexham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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