Constituency profile

Chesterfield

East Midlands · Borough constituency · Chesterfield borough

Mr Toby Perkins MP
Sitting MP

Mr Toby Perkins

Labour

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
Borough constituency, Chesterfield council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
59.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +7.4pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +10.2pp
vs Reform UK 28.3%
MidlandsLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Chesterfield constituency

Chesterfield is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Mr Toby Perkins (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.5% to 20.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,820 votes on a 58.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.5% and Reform UK on 28.3%, a margin of 10.2 points.

Who lives in Chesterfield? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
59.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
27.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
62.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
37.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Chesterfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 10,820 votes (26.1pp) · turnout 58.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Chesterfield

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Chesterfield within Chesterfield

Chesterfield sits entirely within Chesterfield Council. Chesterfield was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Chesterfield
62 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
1 May 2025Brampton East and Boythorpe
Chesterfield
LD GAIN from LabLD 35% Ref 30% Lab 20%
5 Jul 2024Spire
Chesterfield
Lab HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Brampton East & BoythorpeLabour 48.5%vs Conservative 21.0%2023 Labour 46.2%vs Lib Dem 45.7%-35.5%
Brampton West & Loundsley GreenLabour 44.3%vs Conservative 22.6%2023 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Labour 44.3%-45.2%
Brimington NorthLabour 49.5%vs Reform 19.8%2023 Labour 70.5%vs Independent 16.0%-23.8%
Brimington SouthLabour 47.8%vs Conservative 22.4%2023 Labour 49.8%vs Lib Dem 41.6%-34.1%
BrockwellLabour 45.6%vs Conservative 21.1%2023 Lib Dem 52.6%vs Labour 33.7%-40.6%
DunstonLabour 47.0%vs Reform 20.4%2023 Labour 53.9%vs Lib Dem 19.0%-31.6%
HaslandLabour 48.0%vs Conservative 23.3%2023 Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 26.5%-39.6%
LinacreLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 24.8%2023 Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 33.4%-41.2%
RotherLabour 46.4%vs Reform 20.9%2023 Labour 73.2%vs Lib Dem 20.4%-23.1%
SpireLabour 48.3%vs Reform 19.5%2023 Labour 52.1%vs Lib Dem 40.8%-37.3%
Staveley CentralLabour 51.1%vs Reform 23.5%2023 Labour 54.2%vs Independent 35.7%-21.4%
Staveley SouthLabour 45.1%vs Reform 21.5%2023 Labour 57.0%vs Independent 37.3%-28.6%
WaltonLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 27.2%2023 Lib Dem 54.8%vs Labour 32.6%-52.2%
WhittingtonLabour 40.9%vs Reform 20.5%2023 Lib Dem 61.1%vs Labour 32.1%-28.8%
Whittington MoorLabour 52.8%vs Reform 19.7%2023 Labour 63.3%vs Lib Dem 15.9%-28.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Chesterfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Chesterfield at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab gain from LDToby Perkins39.0%15.7%37.8%3.1% UKIP1.3%3.0%54963.8%
2015Lab holdToby Perkins47.9%18.1%13.8%16.5% UKIP3.0%0.7%13,59863.6%-0.2
2017Lab holdToby Perkins54.8%34.8%5.4%3.4% UKIP1.6%-9,60566.5%+2.9
2019notionalLabour winnerToby Perkins 2019 MP, pre-review boundary40.2%37.0%8.8%-2.5%11.5%1,45163.9%-2.6
2024Lab holdToby Perkins46.5%20.4%6.1%19.0% Ref6.5%1.5%10,82058.0%-5.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Chesterfield

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chesterfield. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.