Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Wales · County constituency
About the Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr constituency
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Steve Witherden (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 29.4% to 20.6% for Reform UK, a majority of 3,815 votes on a 58.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.7% and Plaid Cymru on 23.4%, a margin of 4.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Gwynedd Maldwyn. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwynedd Maldwyn | 99% | Plaid Cymru 44.2% | Reform UK 27.7% | 4 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr within Powys and Wrexham
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr crosses council boundaries: Powys (62%), Wrexham (38%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Powys | 62% |
| Wrexham | 38% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | Glantwymyn | PC HOLD | PC 82% Ref 10% Con 4% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Llanidloes | LD HOLD | LD 36% Ref 35% PC 14% |
| 10 Oct 2024 | Machynlleth | PC GAIN from Ind | — |
| 5 Jun 2024 | Rhiwcynon | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acrefair North | Labour 34.3%vs Reform 24.6% | 2022 Labour 54.7%vs Independent 45.3% | - | - |
| Banwy, Llanfihangel and Llanwddyn | Labour 27.3%vs Plaid Cymru 25.3% | 2022 Independent 55.0%vs Plaid Cymru 45.0% | - | - |
| Berriew and Castle Caereinion | Labour 27.2%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2022 Conservative 42.3%vs Independent 32.7% | - | 41.0% |
| Caersws | Labour 28.8%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2022 Conservative 66.6%vs Green 33.4% | - | - |
| Cefn East | Labour 34.9%vs Reform 22.0% | 2022 Labour 51.2%vs Independent 48.8% | - | - |
| Cefn West | Labour 33.0%vs Reform 22.1% | 2022 Independent 58.4%vs Labour 41.6% | - | - |
| Chirk North | Labour 38.6%vs Reform 15.9% | 2022 Labour 59.9%vs Independent 40.1% | - | - |
| Chirk South | Labour 29.5%vs Reform 24.3% | 2017 Independent 74.3%vs Labour 25.7% | - | - |
| Churchstoke | Labour 25.7%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | - |
| Dolforwyn | Conservative 27.8%vs Labour 24.3% | 2022 Conservative 62.5%vs Lib Dem 37.5% | - | 49.0% |
| Dyffryn Ceiriog | Labour 28.9%vs Reform 24.1% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Esclusham | Labour 30.7%vs Reform 26.6% | 2017 Independent 79.5%vs Plaid Cymru 10.4% | - | - |
| Forden and Montgomery | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 19.0% | 2022 Independent 42.2%vs Green 33.4% | - | 48.0% |
| Glantwymyn | Labour 27.9%vs Reform 22.6% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 54.6%vs Conservative 45.4% | - | - |
| Guilsfield | Conservative 28.1%vs Labour 24.4% | 2022 Conservative 72.0%vs Lib Dem 28.0% | - | 39.0% |
| Kerry | Labour 26.1%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2022 Conservative 52.6%vs Independent 47.4% | - | 45.0% |
| Llandinam with Dolfor | Labour 28.1%vs Reform 23.8% | Sitting Reform x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llandrinio | Conservative 27.5%vs Labour 24.6% | 2022 Conservative 71.7%vs Independent 28.3% | - | 35.0% |
| Llandysilio | Labour 31.5%vs Reform 20.6% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | 35.0% |
| Llanfair Caereinion and Llanerfyl | Labour 28.0%vs Reform 20.0% | 2022 Independent 78.5%vs Labour 21.5% | - | 45.0% |
| Llanfyllin | Labour 26.3%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2022 Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 41.3% | - | 49.0% |
| Llangyniew and Meifod | Conservative 29.2%vs Labour 22.2% | 2022 Conservative 54.6%vs Plaid Cymru 21.9% | - | 42.0% |
| Llanidloes | Labour 27.3%vs Lib Dem 24.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Independent 20.7% | - | - |
| Llanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant and Llansilin | Labour 28.5%vs Reform 24.0% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llansantffraid | Labour 28.8%vs Reform 24.1% | 2017 Conservative 61.7%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | - | - |
| Machynlleth | Labour 30.6%vs Plaid Cymru 20.6% | 2022 Independent 57.9%vs Plaid Cymru 42.1% | - | 45.0% |
| Newtown Central and South | Labour 30.6%vs Reform 22.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 63.5%vs Conservative 23.8% | - | 26.0% |
| Newtown East | Labour 31.1%vs Reform 27.5% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Newtown North | Labour 28.4%vs Conservative 21.0% | 2022 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 40.3% | - | 42.0% |
| Newtown West | Labour 31.7%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2022 Conservative 33.8%vs Independent 24.4% | - | 46.0% |
| Pant and Johnstown | Labour 31.4%vs Reform 22.6% | 2022 Independent 84.9%vs Labour 15.1% | - | - |
| Penycae | Reform 27.8%vs Labour 26.7% | 2022 Independent 92.5%vs Labour 6.4% | - | - |
| Penycae and Ruabon South | Labour 32.3%vs Reform 19.5% | 2022 Independent 37.8%vs Plaid Cymru 31.2% | - | - |
| Ponciau | Labour 32.4%vs Reform 21.6% | 2022 Independent 65.9%vs Labour 34.1% | - | - |
| Rhiwcynon | Labour 28.0%vs Plaid Cymru 24.5% | 2022 Independent 53.8%vs Plaid Cymru 44.3% | - | 55.0% |
| Rhos | Labour 32.9%vs Reform 23.8% | 2022 Independent 62.5%vs Labour 31.0% | - | - |
| Ruabon | Labour 35.5%vs Reform 24.5% | 2022 Independent 50.1%vs Labour 32.2% | - | - |
| Trelystan and Trewern | Conservative 28.3%vs Labour 24.5% | 2022 Conservative 66.1%vs Lib Dem 33.9% | - | 40.0% |
| Welshpool Castle | Labour 25.0%vs Reform 24.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Independent 24.1% | - | 31.0% |
| Welshpool Gungrog | Labour 29.2%vs Reform 19.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | - |
| Welshpool Llanerchyddol | Labour 29.0%vs Reform 24.1% | 2017 Independent 82.1%vs Lib Dem 17.9% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from LD | Glyn Davies Montgomeryshire MP | 7.1% | 41.3% | 37.8% | 1,184 | 69.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Glyn Davies Montgomeryshire MP | 5.6% | 45.0% | 29.3% | 5,325 | 69.3%-0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Glyn Davies Montgomeryshire MP | 15.9% | 51.8% | 25.2% | 9,285 | 68.7%-0.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Craig Williams Montgomeryshire MP, pre-review boundary | 24.8% | 53.6% | 16.8% | 14,765 | 69.0% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Steve Witherden | 29.4% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 3,815 | 58.4%-10.6 |
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Montgomeryshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 26.5vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.9 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.5vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 29.1vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.8 / 26.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.9 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 30.2vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 27.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.8 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.9 / 60.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.