North Durham
North East · County constituency · County Durham borough
About the North Durham constituency
North Durham is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Luke Akehurst (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.9% to 25.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 5,873 votes on a 56.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 36.0% and Labour on 29.0%, a margin of 7.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North Durham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Durham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Durham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Durham within County Durham
North Durham sits entirely within County Durham Council. County Durham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| County Durham | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annfield Plain | Labour 36.6%vs Reform 29.8% | No council data | - | - |
| Chester-le-Street East | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 24.6% | No council data | - | - |
| Chester-le-Street North | Labour 46.1%vs Reform 24.4% | No council data | - | - |
| Chester-le-Street South | Labour 35.8%vs Reform 26.8% | No council data | - | - |
| Chester-le-Street West Central | Labour 39.0%vs Reform 28.2% | No council data | - | - |
| Craghead and South Moor | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 25.1% | No council data | - | - |
| Lanchester | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 23.6% | No council data | - | - |
| Lumley | Labour 33.5%vs Reform 27.8% | No council data | - | - |
| North Lodge | Labour 28.3%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | No council data | - | - |
| Pelton | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 22.4% | No council data | - | - |
| Sacriston | Labour 40.5%vs Reform 24.9% | No council data | - | - |
| Stanley | Labour 42.4%vs Reform 29.0% | No council data | - | - |
| Tanfield | Labour 40.2%vs Reform 27.9% | No council data | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Durham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Durham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kevan Jones | 50.5% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 12,076 | 60.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kevan Jones | 54.9% | 20.9% | 5.1% | 13,644 | 61.4%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kevan Jones | 59.9% | 30.0% | 4.6% | 12,939 | 64.6%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kevan Jones 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.7% | 34.4% | 6.4% | 4,424 | 65.4%+0.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Luke Akehurst | 39.8% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 5,873 | 56.8%-8.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North Durham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Durham. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.9 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.9 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 25.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.0vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 28.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.9vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.3 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 62.6vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 25.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.