St Helens North
North West · County constituency · St. Helens borough
About the St Helens North constituency
St Helens North is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is David Baines (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.6% to 22.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 12,169 votes on a 53.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 42.9% and Reform UK on 38.6%, a margin of 4.4 points.
Who lives in St Helens North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did St Helens North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of St Helens North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
St Helens North within St. Helens
St Helens North sits entirely within St. Helens Council. St. Helens was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| St. Helens | 100% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Haydock | Ref HOLD | Ref 33% Other 31% Lab 28% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billinge & Seneley Green | Labour 49.6%vs Reform 22.9% | 2022 Independent 47.1%vs Labour 44.9% | - | 30.3% |
| Blackbrook | Labour 56.3%vs Reform 21.3% | 2022 Labour 67.2%vs Green 25.0% | - | 30.8% |
| Haydock | Labour 51.3%vs Reform 22.7% | 2022 Green 61.9%vs Labour 34.0% | - | 29.1% |
| Moss Bank | Labour 54.9%vs Reform 21.6% | 2022 Labour 70.0%vs Lib Dem 15.2% | - | 34.2% |
| Newton-le-Willows East | Labour 53.7%vs Reform 20.4% | 2022 Labour 69.1%vs Lib Dem 19.8% | - | - |
| Newton-le-Willows West | Labour 51.4%vs Reform 26.2% | 2022 Independent 52.9%vs Labour 44.1% | - | - |
| Parr | Labour 51.6%vs Reform 26.3% | 2022 Labour 90.8%vs Conservative 9.2% | - | 14.1% |
| Rainford | Labour 46.0%vs Reform 22.8% | 2022 Conservative 72.6%vs Labour 27.4% | - | 38.4% |
| Windle | Labour 56.6%vs Reform 19.3% | 2022 Labour 70.0%vs Green 17.1% | - | 39.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for St Helens North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won St Helens North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Dave Watts | 51.7% | 22.3% | 20.2% | 13,101 | 59.4% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Conor McGinn | 57.0% | 19.6% | 4.4% | 17,291 | 61.5%+2.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Conor McGinn | 63.7% | 27.1% | 2.6% | 18,406 | 66.0%+4.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Conor McGinn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 52.3% | 26.6% | 5.6% | 12,209 | 62.5%-3.5 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | David Baines | 52.6% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 12,169 | 53.6%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like St Helens North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to St Helens North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 11.2vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.4 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 25.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 15.9vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.4 / 56.3vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.