Neath and Swansea East
Wales · County constituency
About the Neath and Swansea East constituency
Neath and Swansea East is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Carolyn Harris (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.9% to 25.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,627 votes on a 52.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.7% and Labour on 25.9%, a margin of 3.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Neath and Swansea East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Neath and Swansea East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Neath and Swansea East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Neath and Swansea East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Neath and Swansea East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Neath and Swansea East | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | 99% | Reform UK 33.2% | Plaid Cymru 28.7% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Neath and Swansea East within Neath Port Talbot and Swansea
Neath and Swansea East crosses council boundaries: Neath Port Talbot (63%), Swansea (37%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Neath Port Talbot | 63% |
| Swansea | 37% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2024 | Neath East | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdulais | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 27.7% | 2022 Independent 50.4%vs Labour 35.5% | - | - |
| Blaengwrach and Glynneath West | Labour 35.9%vs Reform 27.0% | 2022 Independent 59.0%vs Plaid Cymru 36.9% | - | - |
| Bryn-coch North | Labour 37.8%vs Plaid Cymru 25.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 57.0%vs Labour 30.6% | - | - |
| Bryn-coch South | Labour 37.8%vs Plaid Cymru 23.5% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 73.6%vs Labour 26.4% | - | - |
| Cadoxton | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 25.7% | 2022 Independent 51.5%vs Labour 31.5% | - | - |
| Cimla and Pelenna | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 23.4% | 2022 Independent 61.9%vs Labour 38.1% | - | - |
| Clydach | Labour 37.3%vs Reform 26.5% | 2022 Independent 50.6%vs Labour 36.2% | - | - |
| Coedffranc Central | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 25.2% | 2022 Labour 45.5%vs Green 43.4% | - | - |
| Coedffranc North | Labour 45.5%vs Reform 23.7% | 2022 Labour 62.2%vs Independent 37.8% | - | - |
| Coedffranc West | Labour 34.2%vs Reform 21.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 79.5%vs Labour 14.2% | - | - |
| Crynant, Onllwyn and Seven Sisters | Labour 45.9%vs Reform 20.9% | 2022 Independent 70.0%vs Labour 25.0% | - | - |
| Dyffryn | Labour 36.5%vs Reform 29.9% | 2022 Independent 86.8%vs Labour 13.2% | - | - |
| Glynneath Central and East | Labour 36.2%vs Reform 26.1% | 2022 Independent 77.5%vs Plaid Cymru 22.6% | - | - |
| Llansamlet | Labour 47.7%vs Reform 24.3% | 2022 Labour 81.8%vs Plaid Cymru 8.3% | - | - |
| Neath East | Labour 35.2%vs Reform 31.4% | 2022 Labour 43.1%vs Plaid Cymru 41.9% | - | - |
| Neath North | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 25.5% | 2022 Labour 53.6%vs Independent 27.6% | - | - |
| Neath South | Labour 39.1%vs Reform 26.6% | 2022 Labour 37.2%vs Independent 35.3% | - | - |
| Resolven and Tonna | Labour 42.3%vs Reform 22.9% | 2022 Labour 43.4%vs Independent 42.5% | - | - |
| St Thomas | Labour 46.4%vs Reform 26.7% | 2022 Labour 84.1%vs Lib Dem 7.0% | - | - |
| Waterfront | Labour 32.4%vs Reform 23.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.5%vs Labour 31.7% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Neath and Swansea East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Neath and Swansea East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Peter Hain Neath MP | 46.3% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 9,775 | 64.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Christina Rees Neath MP | 43.8% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 9,548 | 66.2%+1.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Christina Rees Neath MP | 56.7% | 23.7% | 1.9% | 12,631 | 68.5%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Christina Rees Neath MP, pre-review boundary | 47.1% | 28.2% | 4.1% | 8,451 | 60.0% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Carolyn Harris | 41.8% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 6,627 | 52.6%-7.4 |
Neath and Swansea East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Neath (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Neath and Swansea East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Neath and Swansea East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 17.2vs 20.2
- ↓Employed52.3 / 55.1vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↓Employed52.3 / 55.0vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↓Employed52.3 / 52.5vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 16.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Employed52.3 / 54.8vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 30.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.