Caerphilly
Wales · County constituency · Caerphilly borough
About the Caerphilly constituency
Caerphilly is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Chris Evans (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.0% to 21.2% for Plaid Cymru, a majority of 6,419 votes on a 52.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 36.3% and Reform UK on 25.0%, a margin of 11.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Caerphilly? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Caerphilly vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Caerphilly
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Caerphilly voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Caerphilly sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Caerphilly | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | 98% | Plaid Cymru 42.0% | Reform UK 34.3% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
| Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | 1% | Plaid Cymru 39.5% | Reform UK 30.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Caerphilly within Caerphilly
Caerphilly sits entirely within Caerphilly Council. Caerphilly was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Hengoed | PC HOLD | PC 50% Ref 36% Lab 10% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Van | PC GAIN from Lab | PC 43% Ref 28% Lab 27% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | Penyrheol | PC HOLD | PC 60% Ref 26% Lab 7% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aber Valley | Labour 31.6%vs Plaid Cymru 26.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 85.4%vs Labour 14.6% | - | - |
| Bedwas and Trethomas | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 19.9% | 2022 Labour 72.4%vs Plaid Cymru 18.8% | - | - |
| Cefn Fforest and Pengam | Labour 38.7%vs Reform 23.7% | 2022 Labour 58.1%vs Independent 36.7% | - | - |
| Hengoed | Labour 35.7%vs Plaid Cymru 22.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 54.3%vs Labour 45.7% | - | - |
| Llanbradach | Labour 32.0%vs Plaid Cymru 31.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 65.1%vs Labour 34.9% | - | - |
| Machen and Rudry | Labour 39.4%vs Reform 19.2% | 2022 Labour 59.5%vs Lib Dem 28.4% | - | - |
| Maesycwmmer | Labour 39.8%vs Reform 20.6% | 2022 Labour 59.9%vs Plaid Cymru 40.1% | - | - |
| Morgan Jones | Labour 46.8%vs Reform 18.3% | 2022 Labour 52.1%vs Plaid Cymru 36.0% | - | - |
| Nelson | Labour 41.3%vs Reform 23.9% | 2022 Labour 44.8%vs Independent 29.2% | - | - |
| Penyrheol | Labour 35.1%vs Plaid Cymru 25.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 79.9%vs Labour 13.8% | - | - |
| Pontllanfraith | Labour 38.9%vs Reform 24.5% | 2022 Labour 53.3%vs Independent 35.6% | - | - |
| St Cattwg | Labour 37.0%vs Plaid Cymru 21.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 50.4%vs Labour 49.6% | - | - |
| St Martins | Labour 37.1%vs Plaid Cymru 24.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 72.3%vs Labour 18.6% | - | - |
| Van | Labour 37.0%vs Reform 23.2% | 2022 Labour 54.7%vs Plaid Cymru 45.3% | - | - |
| Ynysddu | Labour 31.4%vs Reform 22.0% | 2022 Independent 85.4%vs Labour 14.6% | - | - |
| Ystrad Mynach | Labour 36.5%vs Plaid Cymru 26.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 74.7%vs Labour 25.3% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Caerphilly at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Caerphilly at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Wayne David | 44.9% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 10,755 | 62.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Wayne David | 44.3% | 16.6% | 2.3% | 10,073 | 63.3%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Wayne David | 54.5% | 25.2% | 1.8% | 12,078 | 64.1%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Wayne David 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.9% | 28.6% | 0.7% | 6,901 | 62.2%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Chris Evans | 38.0% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 6,419 | 52.6%-9.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Caerphilly
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caerphilly. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑No quals22.6 / 21.9vs 18.0
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 21.4vs 18.0
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 25.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.6 / 21.3vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 14.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 29.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 29.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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