Llanelli
Wales · County constituency · Carmarthenshire borough
About the Llanelli constituency
Llanelli is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Dame Nia Griffith (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.3% to 27.6% for Reform UK, a majority of 1,504 votes on a 57.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 33.2% and Reform UK on 33.1%, a margin of 0.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Llanelli? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Llanelli vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Llanelli
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Llanelli voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Llanelli sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Gaerfyrddin. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Llanelli | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Gaerfyrddin | 100% | Plaid Cymru 43.1% | Reform UK 32.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Llanelli within Carmarthenshire
Llanelli sits entirely within Carmarthenshire Council. Carmarthenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Llangennech | PC GAIN from Ref | PC 41% Lab 29% Ref 24% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Llangennech | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 43% PC 30% Lab 24% |
| 29 May 2025 | Lliedi | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 43% Lab 23% Other 16% |
| 8 Mar 2024 | Elli | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bigyn | Reform 34.8%vs Labour 29.6% | 2022 Labour 47.5%vs Independent 43.6% | - | 31.0% |
| Burry Port | Labour 36.0%vs Reform 23.5% | 2022 Labour 69.0%vs Independent 18.9% | - | 43.0% |
| Bynea | Labour 33.0%vs Reform 31.3% | 2022 Labour 49.1%vs Independent 38.4% | - | 34.0% |
| Dafen and Felinfoel | Labour 39.3%vs Reform 30.0% | 2022 Labour 58.6%vs Independent 23.4% | - | 36.0% |
| Elli | Reform 34.8%vs Labour 30.5% | 2022 Independent 55.1%vs Labour 26.7% | - | 42.0% |
| Glanymor | Reform 39.2%vs Labour 26.5% | 2022 Independent 69.4%vs Labour 24.9% | - | 36.0% |
| Glyn | Plaid Cymru 37.8%vs Labour 23.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 63.6%vs Independent 24.4% | - | 47.0% |
| Gorslas | Plaid Cymru 34.4%vs Labour 27.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 83.9%vs Labour 16.1% | - | 40.0% |
| Hendy | Plaid Cymru 31.0%vs Labour 27.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 51.8%vs Labour 39.8% | - | 34.0% |
| Hengoed | Labour 31.8%vs Reform 29.1% | 2022 Labour 36.3%vs Plaid Cymru 28.1% | - | 39.0% |
| Kidwelly and St Ishmael | Labour 37.2%vs Plaid Cymru 27.6% | 2022 Labour 57.6%vs Plaid Cymru 36.5% | - | 45.0% |
| Llangennech | Labour 34.5%vs Reform 25.3% | 2022 Labour 58.6%vs Plaid Cymru 41.4% | - | 38.0% |
| Llangyndeyrn | Plaid Cymru 35.2%vs Labour 26.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 61.8%vs Independent 21.2% | - | 44.0% |
| Llannon | Labour 31.6%vs Reform 28.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 41.3%vs Labour 38.0% | - | 36.0% |
| Lliedi | Labour 34.1%vs Reform 32.7% | 2022 Labour 60.5%vs Independent 30.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Llwynhendy | Reform 34.7%vs Labour 31.5% | 2022 Independent 56.6%vs Labour 40.6% | - | 34.0% |
| Pembrey | Labour 30.4%vs Plaid Cymru 25.5% | 2022 Independent 44.1%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 40.0% |
| Pontyberem | Plaid Cymru 42.4%vs Labour 25.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 71.3%vs Labour 28.7% | - | 46.0% |
| Swiss Valley | Reform 34.7%vs Labour 28.0% | 2022 Independent 85.6%vs Conservative 14.4% | - | 43.0% |
| Trimsaran | Plaid Cymru 35.2%vs Labour 26.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 64.7%vs Labour 35.3% | - | 39.0% |
| Tycroes | Labour 41.1%vs Reform 20.2% | 2022 Labour 71.0%vs Plaid Cymru 29.0% | - | 50.0% |
| Tyisha | Labour 30.6%vs Reform 29.9% | 2022 Labour 53.8%vs Plaid Cymru 28.6% | - | 32.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Llanelli at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Llanelli at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Nia Griffith | 42.5% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 4,701 | 67.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Nia Griffith | 41.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 7,095 | 65.0%-2.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Nia Griffith | 53.5% | 23.7% | 1.4% | 12,024 | 67.9%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Nia Griffith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 39.3% | 30.7% | 0.0% | 3,793 | 62.8%-5.1 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Nia Griffith | 31.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 1,504 | 57.0%-5.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Llanelli
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Llanelli. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent14.8 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 29.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 68.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.8 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 68.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.8 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Employed52.6 / 51.3vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+27.1 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 30.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.8 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 29.3vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.