Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Wales · County constituency · Pembrokeshire borough
About the Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency
Mid and South Pembrokeshire is a county constituency in Wales, covering most or all of Pembrokeshire. The sitting MP is Henry Tufnell (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Mid and South Pembrokeshire with 35.4% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 31.4%, a majority of 1,878 votes. Turnout was 59.0%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 25.5% and the Conservatives on 24.3% in Mid and South Pembrokeshire, a margin of 1.2 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Mid and South Pembrokeshire is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 55.2% voted Leave in 2016). About 30.4% of residents hold a degree, 65.5% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Mid and South Pembrokeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid and South Pembrokeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Mid and South Pembrokeshire voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Ceredigion Penfro. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceredigion Penfro | 99% | Plaid Cymru 35.8% | Reform UK 25.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire within Pembrokeshire
The Westminster constituency of Mid and South Pembrokeshire sits entirely within Pembrokeshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Pembrokeshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Pembrokeshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Milford: Hakin | Ref GAIN from Ind | — |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Haverfordwest: Prendergast | Ind HOLD | — |
| 18 Oct 2024 | The Havens | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
| 23 Apr 2024 | St Ishmael's | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid and South Pembrokeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid and South Pembrokeshire at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 31.2% | 42.8% | 14.5% | 4,605 | 69.0% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 28.1% | 40.4% | 1.9% | 4,969 | 70.8%+1.8 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 42.6% | 43.4% | 2.6% | 314 | 72.1%+1.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 37.2% | 52.9% | 4.6% | 8,621 | 71.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Henry Tufnell | 35.4% | 31.4% | 5.1% | 1,878 | 59.0%-12.6 |
Mid and South Pembrokeshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Preseli Pembrokeshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid and South Pembrokeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 28.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 24.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 33.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.3 / 49.9vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 20.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.3 / 51.1vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.3 / 52.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 27.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 26.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.3 / 53.3vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.