Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Wales · County constituency · Pembrokeshire borough
About the Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency
Mid and South Pembrokeshire is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Henry Tufnell (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.4% to 31.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,878 votes on a 59.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 25.8% and Reform UK on 24.3%, a margin of 1.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Mid and South Pembrokeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid and South Pembrokeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Mid and South Pembrokeshire voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Ceredigion Penfro. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceredigion Penfro | 99% | Plaid Cymru 35.8% | Reform UK 25.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire within Pembrokeshire
Mid and South Pembrokeshire sits entirely within Pembrokeshire Council. Pembrokeshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Pembrokeshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Milford: Hakin | Ref GAIN from Ind | — |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Haverfordwest: Prendergast | Ind HOLD | — |
| 18 Oct 2024 | The Havens | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
| 23 Apr 2024 | St Ishmael's | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amroth and Saundersfoot North | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 31.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 58.2%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | - |
| Burton | Conservative 46.3%vs Labour 26.7% | 2022 Conservative 61.8%vs Independent 38.2% | - | - |
| Camrose | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2022 Independent 77.3%vs Labour 22.7% | - | - |
| Carew and Jeffreyston | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| East Williamston | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2017 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Haverfordwest: Castle | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 22.1% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Haverfordwest: Garth | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 24.2% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Haverfordwest: Portfield | Labour 37.2%vs Conservative 25.2% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Haverfordwest: Prendergast | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 33.3% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Haverfordwest: Priory | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 25.8% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Hundleton | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Johnston | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 33.7% | 2022 Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 37.4% | - | - |
| Kilgetty and Begelly | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 52.2%vs Independent 30.0% | - | - |
| Lampeter Velfrey | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 32.2% | 2022 Independent 66.8%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | - |
| Lamphey | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 33.2% | 2022 Independent 76.0%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | - |
| Letterston | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2017 Independent 55.6%vs Plaid Cymru 22.8% | - | - |
| Llangwm | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Manorbier and Penally | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2022 Independent 76.0%vs Plaid Cymru 24.1% | - | - |
| Martletwy | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2017 Conservative 69.2%vs Independent 30.8% | - | - |
| Merlin's Bridge | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2017 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Milford: Central | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 28.4% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Milford: East | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 24.0% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Milford: Hakin | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 26.0% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Milford: Hubberston | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 24.1% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Milford: North | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 33.2% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Milford: West | Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 23.9% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Narberth: Rural | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 29.7% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Narberth: Urban | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 27.7% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Neyland: East | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 28.6% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Neyland: West | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 28.5% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke Dock: Bufferland | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 28.5% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke Dock: Bush | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 28.3% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke Dock: Central | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 28.0% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke Dock: Market | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 28.0% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke Dock: Pennar | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 27.9% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke: Monkton and St Mary South | Conservative 38.9%vs Labour 31.9% | Sitting Conservative x1 Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke: St Mary North | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 30.7% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Pembroke: St Michael | Conservative 43.3%vs Labour 28.2% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Rudbaxton and Spittal | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 29.7% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Saundersfoot South | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2022 Independent 87.6%vs Conservative 12.4% | - | - |
| Solva | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 35.8% | 2022 Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 49.4% | - | - |
| St David's | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 27.0% | 2022 Independent 70.4%vs Labour 23.9% | - | - |
| St Florence and St Mary Out Liberty | Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 26.1% | 2022 Conservative 56.5%vs Plaid Cymru 43.5% | - | - |
| St Ishmael's | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2022 Independent 87.5%vs Green 12.5% | - | - |
| Tenby: North | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Tenby: South | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 26.6% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| The Havens | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 29.7% | 2022 Independent 58.8%vs Conservative 41.2% | - | - |
| Wiston | Labour 29.2%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2017 Conservative 72.7%vs Independent 27.3% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid and South Pembrokeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid and South Pembrokeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 31.2% | 42.8% | 14.5% | 4,605 | 69.0% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 28.1% | 40.4% | 1.9% | 4,969 | 70.8%+1.8 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP | 42.6% | 43.4% | 2.6% | 314 | 72.1%+1.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 37.2% | 52.9% | 4.6% | 8,621 | 71.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Henry Tufnell | 35.4% | 31.4% | 5.1% | 1,878 | 59.0%-12.6 |
Mid and South Pembrokeshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Preseli Pembrokeshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid and South Pembrokeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 28.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 24.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 33.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.3 / 49.9vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 20.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.3 / 51.1vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.3 / 52.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 27.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 26.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.4 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.3 / 53.3vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.