Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Wales · County constituency
About the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is David Chadwick (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 29.5% to 26.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,472 votes on a 63.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 24.9% and Reform UK on 21.7%, a margin of 3.2 points.
Who lives in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | 100% | Reform UK 33.2% | Plaid Cymru 28.7% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe within Powys and Neath Port Talbot
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe crosses council boundaries: Powys (76%), Neath Port Talbot (24%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Powys | 76% |
| Neath Port Talbot | 24% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Trebanos | PC HOLD | PC 51% Ref 20% LD 18% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Llanyre with Nantmel | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 42% LD 26% Con 24% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew | LD GAIN from Con | LD 40% Ref 35% PC 13% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera | LD GAIN from Lab | — |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Rhos | Ind GAIN from PC | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aber-craf and Ystradgynlais | Labour 33.2%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | 2022 Labour 63.3%vs Independent 14.6% | - | 44.0% |
| Allt-wen | Lib Dem 25.7%vs Labour 25.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.6%vs Labour 46.4% | - | - |
| Brecon East | Conservative 29.8%vs Labour 27.7% | 2022 Labour 51.5%vs Independent 22.2% | - | - |
| Brecon West | Labour 30.3%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2022 Labour 76.2%vs Independent 23.8% | - | 49.0% |
| Bronllys and Felin-fach | Lib Dem 32.1%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2022 Independent 48.9%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | - | - |
| Builth | Conservative 27.6%vs Lib Dem 25.9% | 2022 Independent 54.5%vs Conservative 18.4% | - | - |
| Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower | Lib Dem 34.0%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.1%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | - |
| Cwm-twrch | Labour 28.2%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | 2022 Labour 81.7%vs Conservative 18.3% | - | 37.0% |
| Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera | Lib Dem 25.5%vs Labour 24.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 69.4%vs Labour 30.6% | - | - |
| Disserth and Trecoed with Newbridge | Lib Dem 32.4%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2022 Lib Dem 43.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | 43.0% |
| Glasbury | Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2022 Lib Dem 65.2%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 60.0% |
| Godre'r Graig | Lib Dem 25.2%vs Labour 24.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 67.2%vs Labour 28.1% | - | - |
| Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen and Lower Brynamman | Lib Dem 24.1%vs Conservative 23.4% | Sitting Labour x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Gwernyfed | Lib Dem 38.7%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 69.2%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 51.0% |
| Hay | Lib Dem 24.1%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2017 Lib Dem 71.3%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | - |
| Ithon Valley | Conservative 33.2%vs Lib Dem 24.0% | 2022 Independent 70.1%vs Conservative 21.0% | - | 61.0% |
| Knighton with Beguildy | Lib Dem 30.8%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2022 Independent 55.0%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | - | - |
| Llanafanfawr with Garth | Lib Dem 33.8%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2022 Independent 58.0%vs Lib Dem 42.0% | - | 49.0% |
| Llandrindod North | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 22.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 68.9%vs Independent 26.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Llandrindod South | Lib Dem 34.2%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.2%vs Independent 22.4% | - | - |
| Llanelwedd | Lib Dem 30.9%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2022 Independent 71.7%vs Lib Dem 28.3% | - | 50.0% |
| Llangattock and Llangynidr | Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 54.3%vs Independent 45.7% | - | 59.0% |
| Llangors with Bwlch | Lib Dem 34.9%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 38.7%vs Independent 38.1% | - | 59.0% |
| Llangunllo with Norton | Lib Dem 35.2%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2022 Independent 45.0%vs Lib Dem 38.0% | - | 59.0% |
| Llanwrtyd Wells | Lib Dem 34.4%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2022 Independent 57.8%vs Lib Dem 42.2% | - | 52.0% |
| Llanyre with Nantmel | Lib Dem 34.4%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2022 Independent 53.8%vs Lib Dem 46.2% | - | - |
| Maescar and Llywel | Lib Dem 29.9%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2022 Independent 70.9%vs Lib Dem 18.5% | - | 50.0% |
| Old Radnor | Lib Dem 34.2%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2022 Independent 43.5%vs Lib Dem 38.1% | - | 51.0% |
| Pontardawe | Labour 25.2%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.1%vs Labour 46.9% | - | - |
| Presteigne | Conservative 25.8%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | 2022 Independent 71.9%vs Lib Dem 14.5% | - | 43.0% |
| Rhayader | Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2022 Lib Dem 89.0%vs Others 11.0% | - | 41.0% |
| Rhos | Lib Dem 25.5%vs Labour 25.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 54.7%vs Labour 45.3% | - | - |
| Talgarth | Lib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 74.3%vs Conservative 25.7% | - | 59.0% |
| Talybont-on-Usk | Conservative 31.1%vs Lib Dem 30.0% | 2022 Independent 48.2%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | - | 54.0% |
| Tawe Uchaf | Conservative 36.9%vs Lib Dem 22.9% | 2022 Labour 78.6%vs Conservative 21.4% | - | 43.0% |
| Trebanos | Lib Dem 25.0%vs Labour 23.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 69.4%vs Labour 30.6% | - | - |
| Ynyscedwyn | Labour 33.4%vs Lib Dem 25.5% | 2022 Labour 84.4%vs Conservative 15.6% | - | 48.0% |
| Yscir with Honddu Isaf and Llanddew | Conservative 42.3%vs Lib Dem 28.4% | 2022 Conservative 59.3%vs Lib Dem 40.7% | - | 60.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Roger Williams Brecon and Radnorshire MP | 10.5% | 36.5% | 46.2% | 3,747 | 72.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con gain from LD | Chris Davies Brecon and Radnorshire MP | 14.7% | 41.1% | 28.3% | 5,102 | 73.6%+1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Chris Davies Brecon and Radnorshire MP | 17.7% | 48.6% | 29.1% | 8,038 | 73.8%+0.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Fay Jones Brecon and Radnorshire MP, pre-review boundary | 17.5% | 46.6% | 29.2% | 9,091 | 72.5% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | David Chadwick | 21.3% | 26.3% | 29.5% | 1,472 | 63.7%-8.8 |
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Brecon and Radnorshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 34.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 69.2vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
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Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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