Caerfyrddin
Wales · County constituency · Carmarthenshire borough
About the Caerfyrddin constituency
Caerfyrddin is a county constituency in Wales, covering most or all of Carmarthenshire. The sitting MP is Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Plaid Cymru won Caerfyrddin with 34.0% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 24.1%, a majority of 4,535 votes. Turnout was 61.6%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Plaid Cymru on 42.8% and Reform UK on 22.3% in Caerfyrddin, a margin of 20.5 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Caerfyrddin is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 54.2% voted Leave in 2016). About 33.3% of residents hold a degree, 71.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by Plaid Cymru 4 times, the Conservatives 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Caerfyrddin? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Caerfyrddin vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Caerfyrddin
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Caerfyrddin voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Caerfyrddin sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Gaerfyrddin. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Caerfyrddin | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Gaerfyrddin | 99% | Plaid Cymru 43.1% | Reform UK 32.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Caerfyrddin within Carmarthenshire
The Westminster constituency of Caerfyrddin sits entirely within Carmarthenshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Carmarthenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2025 | Llanddarog | PC HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Caerfyrddin at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Caerfyrddin at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 26.5% | 22.4% | 12.1% | 3,481 | 72.6% |
| 2015predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 24.2% | 21.2% | 2.4% | 5,599 | 70.7%-1.9 |
| 2017predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 29.8% | 26.3% | 2.2% | 3,908 | 73.3%+2.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Simon Hart Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 25.1% | 39.2% | 1.3% | 4,529 | 73.4% |
| 2024 | PC gain from Con | Ann Davies | 24.1% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 4,535 | 61.6%-11.8 |
Caerfyrddin was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Caerfyrddin
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caerfyrddin. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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