Caerfyrddin
Wales · County constituency · Carmarthenshire borough
About the Caerfyrddin constituency
Caerfyrddin is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Plaid Cymru won with 34.0% to 24.1% for Labour, a majority of 4,535 votes on a 61.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 43.7% and Reform UK on 21.8%, a margin of 21.9 points.
Who lives in Caerfyrddin? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Caerfyrddin vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Caerfyrddin
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Caerfyrddin voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Caerfyrddin sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Gaerfyrddin. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Caerfyrddin | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Gaerfyrddin | 99% | Plaid Cymru 43.1% | Reform UK 32.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Caerfyrddin within Carmarthenshire
Caerfyrddin sits entirely within Carmarthenshire Council. Carmarthenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2025 | Llanddarog | PC HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abergwili | Plaid Cymru 38.0%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 70.7%vs Conservative 29.3% | - | 52.0% |
| Ammanford | Labour 30.5%vs Plaid Cymru 27.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 50.0%vs Labour 44.5% | - | 43.0% |
| Betws | Plaid Cymru 33.4%vs Labour 25.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 68.9%vs Labour 31.1% | - | 40.0% |
| Carmarthen Town North and South | Labour 31.9%vs Plaid Cymru 24.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 50.6%vs Labour 45.6% | - | 37.0% |
| Carmarthen Town West | Plaid Cymru 33.0%vs Labour 24.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 71.3%vs Labour 16.7% | - | 36.0% |
| Cenarth and Llangeler | Plaid Cymru 40.4%vs Labour 20.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 86.7%vs Lib Dem 13.3% | - | 43.0% |
| Cilycwm | Plaid Cymru 37.4%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 64.6%vs Conservative 22.9% | - | 51.0% |
| Cwarter Bach | Plaid Cymru 33.7%vs Labour 29.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 45.0%vs Labour 43.2% | - | 46.0% |
| Cynwyl Elfed | Plaid Cymru 39.9%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 73.8%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 49.0% |
| Garnant | Labour 32.0%vs Plaid Cymru 27.6% | 2022 Labour 70.3%vs Plaid Cymru 29.7% | - | 43.0% |
| Glanamman | Plaid Cymru 30.6%vs Labour 28.3% | 2022 Labour 56.2%vs Plaid Cymru 43.8% | - | 41.0% |
| Laugharne Township | Plaid Cymru 28.2%vs Reform 25.3% | 2017 Independent 60.1%vs Plaid Cymru 27.6% | - | - |
| Llanboidy | Plaid Cymru 45.3%vs Conservative 20.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 85.4%vs Conservative 14.6% | - | 53.0% |
| Llanddarog | Plaid Cymru 46.5%vs Labour 19.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 84.3%vs Lib Dem 15.7% | - | 51.0% |
| Llandeilo | Plaid Cymru 33.7%vs Labour 23.2% | 2022 Independent 62.6%vs Plaid Cymru 37.4% | - | 55.0% |
| Llandovery | Plaid Cymru 42.6%vs Labour 19.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 86.3%vs Conservative 13.7% | - | 45.0% |
| Llandybie | Plaid Cymru 33.6%vs Labour 26.7% | 2022 Independent 36.1%vs Plaid Cymru 32.8% | - | 44.0% |
| Llanegwad | Plaid Cymru 40.3%vs Conservative 21.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 64.5%vs Independent 21.0% | - | 56.0% |
| Llanfihangel Aberbythych | Plaid Cymru 36.8%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 65.0%vs Conservative 19.5% | - | 43.0% |
| Llanfihangel-ar-Arth | Plaid Cymru 44.3%vs Labour 19.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 87.2%vs Conservative 12.8% | - | 49.0% |
| Llangadog | Plaid Cymru 38.4%vs Labour 21.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 51.4%vs Independent 48.6% | - | 53.0% |
| Llangunnor | Plaid Cymru 26.6%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 46.4%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 49.0% |
| Llanybydder | Plaid Cymru 38.9%vs Labour 20.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 75.1%vs Labour 24.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Manordeilo and Salem | Plaid Cymru 33.2%vs Labour 22.7% | 2022 Independent 59.0%vs Plaid Cymru 41.0% | - | 49.0% |
| Penygroes | Plaid Cymru 27.1%vs Labour 26.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 45.9%vs Labour 26.3% | - | 41.0% |
| Saron | Labour 32.4%vs Plaid Cymru 25.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.8%vs Labour 30.0% | - | - |
| St Clears and Llansteffan | Plaid Cymru 37.9%vs Labour 22.0% | 2022 Independent 67.1%vs Plaid Cymru 32.9% | - | 51.0% |
| Trelech | Plaid Cymru 49.1%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 84.6%vs Conservative 15.4% | - | 53.0% |
| Whitland | Labour 24.7%vs Reform 24.7% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | 42.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Caerfyrddin at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Caerfyrddin at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 26.5% | 22.4% | 12.1% | 3,481 | 72.6% |
| 2015predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 24.2% | 21.2% | 2.4% | 5,599 | 70.7%-1.9 |
| 2017predecessor | PC hold | Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP | 29.8% | 26.3% | 2.2% | 3,908 | 73.3%+2.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Simon Hart Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 25.1% | 39.2% | 1.3% | 4,529 | 73.4% |
| 2024 | PC gain from Con | Ann Davies | 24.1% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 4,535 | 61.6%-11.8 |
Caerfyrddin was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Caerfyrddin
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caerfyrddin. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.7 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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