Suffolk Coastal
East of England · County constituency · East Suffolk borough
About the Suffolk Coastal constituency
Suffolk Coastal is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Jenny Riddell-Carpenter (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.7% to 29.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,070 votes on a 66.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.6% and the Conservatives on 20.1%, a margin of 14.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Suffolk Coastal? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Suffolk Coastal vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Suffolk Coastal
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Suffolk Coastal within East Suffolk
Suffolk Coastal sits entirely within East Suffolk Council. East Suffolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Suffolk | 100% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldeburgh & Leiston | Ref | Ref 33% Con 27% Grn 26% | — |
| Blyth Estuary | Ref | Ref 27% Con 21% LD 21% | 50.9% |
| Felixstowe Clifflands | Ref | Ref 33% LD 29% Con 17% | — |
| Felixstowe Maritime | Ref | Ref 43% Grn 21% Con 14% | 39.0% |
| Framlingham & Wickham Market | Grn | Grn 34% Ref 29% Con 25% | — |
| Halesworth | Grn | Grn 46% Ref 28% Con 17% | 50.0% |
| Martlesham | Ref | Ref 33% Con 26% LD 17% | — |
| Saxmundham & District | Independent | Independent 28% Ref 23% Grn 23% | — |
| Walton & Trimleys | Ref | Ref 39% Con 19% Lab 16% | — |
| Wilford | Ref | Ref 32% Con 29% Grn 26% | — |
| Woodbridge | LD | LD 46% Ref 19% Con 16% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | Woodbridge | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldeburgh & Leiston | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 30.0% | 2023 Green 55.5%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Deben | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Green 48.5% | - | 40.1% |
| Eastern Felixstowe | Labour 29.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 49.6% |
| Kelsale & Yoxford | Labour 29.9%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.4%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 43.5% |
| Martlesham & Purdis Farm | Labour 33.1%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 46.3% | - | 35.3% |
| Melton | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Green 52.1%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 47.5% |
| Orwell & Villages | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 29.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.4%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | 33.6% |
| Rendlesham & Orford | Labour 32.1%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Green 58.1%vs Conservative 38.0% | - | 37.7% |
| Saxmundham | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Independent 34.5%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | - | 33.1% |
| Southwold | Lib Dem 26.9%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 72.4%vs Conservative 17.1% | - | 48.1% |
| Western Felixstowe | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2023 Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 38.3% | - | 27.1% |
| Woodbridge | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 31.7%vs Green 27.5% | - | 67.7% |
| Wrentham, Wangford & Westleton | Conservative 30.0%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.5%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 43.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Suffolk Coastal at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Suffolk Coastal at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Therese Coffey | 16.1% | 46.4% | 29.8% | 9,128 | 71.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Therese Coffey | 18.0% | 51.9% | 8.6% | 18,842 | 71.4%-0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Therese Coffey | 30.5% | 58.1% | 7.0% | 16,012 | 73.2%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Thérèse Coffey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.4% | 56.4% | 15.1% | 18,355 | 72.1%-1.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jenny Riddell-Carpenter | 31.7% | 29.5% | 14.0% | 1,070 | 66.4%-5.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Suffolk Coastal
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Suffolk Coastal. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+34.5 / 32.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 20.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+34.5 / 34.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 20.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 69.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+34.5 / 33.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 66.8vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+34.5 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+34.5 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 20.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 72.1vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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