Tiverton and Minehead
South West · County constituency
About the Tiverton and Minehead constituency
Tiverton and Minehead is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Rachel Gilmour (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 38.6% to 31.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,507 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.9% and the Liberal Democrats on 28.3%, a margin of 3.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Tiverton and Minehead? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tiverton and Minehead vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tiverton and Minehead
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tiverton and Minehead within Somerset and Mid Devon
Tiverton and Minehead crosses council boundaries: Somerset (56%), Mid Devon (44%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Somerset | 56% |
| Mid Devon | 44% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2025 | Dunster | LD GAIN from Con | LD 50% Ref 29% Con 20% |
| 1 May 2025 | Clare and Shuttern | LD HOLD | LD 50% Con 46% Lab 4% |
| 21 Jun 2024 | Tiverton Westexe | LD GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canonsleigh | Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.0%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 58.1% |
| Clare & Shuttern | Lib Dem 35.9%vs Conservative 34.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.3%vs Conservative 40.7% | - | 43.9% |
| Dulverton & Exmoor | Conservative 41.2%vs Lib Dem 32.9% | 2022 Conservative 67.6%vs Lib Dem 23.6% | - | 51.2% |
| Dunster | Lib Dem 42.7%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2022 Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 44.4% | - | 45.3% |
| Halberton | Lib Dem 35.4%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.4%vs Conservative 39.6% | - | 37.9% |
| Lower Culm | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 39.5% |
| Lydeard | Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.6%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 41.6% |
| Minehead | Lib Dem 35.7%vs Conservative 34.3% | 2022 Conservative 45.0%vs Lib Dem 29.4% | - | 73.7% |
| Tiverton Castle | Lib Dem 41.5%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.6%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 30.6% |
| Tiverton Cranmore | Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 37.0% |
| Tiverton Lowman | Lib Dem 42.0%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 29.1% |
| Tiverton Westexe | Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 30.3%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 31.6% |
| Upper Culm | Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.8%vs Conservative 31.2% | - | 40.3% |
| Upper Tone | Lib Dem 35.6%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2022 Conservative 34.7%vs Green 26.1% | - | 68.3% |
| Watchet & Stogursey | Conservative 34.2%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | 2022 Independent 56.0%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 32.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tiverton and Minehead at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tiverton and Minehead at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.1% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 9,249 | 66.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 17.6% | 46.0% | 12.4% | 14,583 | 67.6%+1.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP | 28.6% | 55.1% | 10.9% | 15,448 | 65.3%-2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset MP, pre-review boundary | 14.3% | 61.3% | 19.5% | 20,665 | 69.8% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Rachel Gilmour | 9.1% | 31.2% | 38.6% | 3,507 | 65.9%-3.9 |
Tiverton and Minehead was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bridgwater and West Somerset (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Tiverton and Minehead
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tiverton and Minehead. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+33.7 / 32.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.8 / 66.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.7 / 32.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.8 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.7 / 31.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.8 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.7 / 34.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.8 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.7 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.4vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.6 / 60.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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