South Dorset
South West · County constituency · Dorset borough
About the South Dorset constituency
South Dorset is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Lloyd Hatton (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.9% to 29.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,048 votes on a 64.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.4% and the Conservatives on 27.8%, a margin of 2.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in South Dorset? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Dorset vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Dorset
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Dorset within Dorset
South Dorset sits entirely within Dorset Council. Dorset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dorset | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Swanage | Con HOLD | Con 35% LD 21% Ref 21% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chickerell | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 26.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 29.8% |
| Crossways | Conservative 32.5%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 36.9% |
| Littlemoor & Preston | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 29.4% | 2024 Conservative 57.5%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | - | 41.1% |
| Melcombe Regis | Labour 32.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2024 Green 49.2%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 25.6% |
| Portland | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2024 Others 38.8%vs Labour 32.8% | - | 31.9% |
| Radipole | Labour 29.6%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 64.4%vs Conservative 23.3% | - | 32.5% |
| Rodwell & Wyke | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2024 Green 43.6%vs Labour 32.4% | - | 30.4% |
| South East Purbeck | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 22.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 57.8%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 42.2% |
| Swanage | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 34.8% | 2024 Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 30.6% | - | 41.3% |
| Upwey & Broadwey | Conservative 30.1%vs Labour 27.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 25.0% | - | 33.7% |
| West Purbeck | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 21.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 40.5% | - | 30.5% |
| Westham | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Labour 26.6% | - | 24.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Dorset at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Dorset at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Richard Drax | 30.3% | 45.1% | 19.0% | 7,443 | 68.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Richard Drax | 24.2% | 48.9% | 6.0% | 11,994 | 67.9%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Richard Drax | 33.6% | 56.1% | 5.9% | 11,695 | 68.7%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Richard Drax 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.8% | 59.2% | 10.7% | 18,147 | 68.8%+0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Lloyd Hatton | 31.9% | 29.8% | 16.3% | 1,048 | 64.6%-4.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Dorset
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Dorset. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+31.8 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 22.4vs 30.2
- ↑Leave59.5 / 60.2vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+31.8 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.5vs 30.2
- ↑Leave59.5 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+31.8 / 33.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 66.8vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.8 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.1 / 28.5vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.8 / 29.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.5 / 62.0vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.