Constituency profile

Isle of Wight West

South East · County constituency · Isle of Wight borough

Richard Quigley MP
Sitting MP

Richard Quigley

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency, Isle of Wight council
Last 5 GE winners
---CL
Conservative 1/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
62.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +10.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +6.8pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernStrong Leave area

About the Isle of Wight West constituency

Isle of Wight West is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Richard Quigley (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.6% to 29.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,177 votes on a 61.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.2% and Labour on 27.4%, a margin of 6.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Isle of Wight West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
62.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
28.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
49.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
23.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Isle of Wight West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 3,177 votes (9.2pp) · turnout 61.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Isle of Wight West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Isle of Wight West within Isle of Wight

Isle of Wight West sits entirely within Isle of Wight Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Isle of Wight
44 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Brighstone, Calbourne & ShalfleetLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 32.3%May 2026 Lib Dem 54.5%vs Reform 32.1%
Labour→Lib Dem
+43.4pp
55.7%
Carisbrooke & GunvilleLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 27.1%May 2026 Green 46.5%vs Reform 32.8%
Labour→Green
+38.9pp
42.6%
Central RuralConservative 37.7%vs Labour 30.8%May 2026 Reform 42.3%vs Conservative 25.7%
Conservative→Reform
+19.1pp
48.4%
Chale, Niton & ShorwellLabour 46.4%vs Conservative 27.7%May 2026 Green 51.7%vs Reform 31.8%
Labour→Green
+45.9pp
54.8%
Cowes MedinaLabour 40.7%vs Conservative 21.0%May 2026 Others 46.5%vs Reform 28.5%
Labour→Others
+43.6pp
37.0%
Cowes NorthLabour 47.6%vs Conservative 25.2%May 2026 Labour 35.6%vs Others 29.6%
Labour share
-11.9pp
44.3%
Cowes South & NorthwoodLabour 38.6%vs Conservative 33.7%May 2026 Reform 30.8%vs Conservative 28.5%
Labour→Reform
+22.9pp
44.9%
Cowes West & GurnardLabour 33.9%vs Conservative 27.9%May 2026 Others 75.5%vs Reform 17.7%
Labour→Others
+54.7pp
52.5%
East CowesLabour 33.0%vs Conservative 31.6%May 2026 Others 57.3%vs Reform 23.6%
Labour→Others
+45.1pp
49.0%
Fairlee & WhippinghamLabour 40.3%vs Conservative 34.1%May 2026 Conservative 49.0%vs Reform 30.9%
Labour→Conservative
+27.6pp
42.8%
Freshwater North & YarmouthLabour 41.5%vs Conservative 31.5%May 2026 Reform 33.9%vs Others 32.5%
Labour→Reform
+28.3pp
47.9%
Freshwater SouthLabour 37.8%vs Conservative 31.3%May 2026 Others 63.9%vs Reform 27.6%
Labour→Others
+49.7pp
48.0%
Mountjoy & ShideLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 29.6%May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Conservative 24.2%
Labour→Reform
+21.3pp
38.0%
Newport CentralLabour 39.9%vs Reform 22.5%May 2026 Others 48.3%vs Reform 26.6%
Labour→Others
+44.1pp
33.6%
Newport WestLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 29.5%May 2026 Reform 39.6%vs Green 33.6%
Labour→Reform
+32.4pp
40.0%
OsborneLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 27.3%May 2026 Reform 34.2%vs Others 31.6%
Labour→Reform
+24.2pp
35.4%
Pan & BartonLabour 45.2%vs Conservative 20.9%May 2026 Reform 46.2%vs Labour 42.6%
Labour→Reform
+14.4pp
26.9%
Parkhurst & HunnyhillLabour 31.4%vs Conservative 26.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 61.2%vs Reform 38.8%
Labour→Lib Dem
+38.0pp
33.5%
Totland & ColwellConservative 37.5%vs Labour 32.9%May 2026 Others 51.5%vs Reform 27.3%
Conservative→Others
+40.8pp
48.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Isle of Wight West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Isle of Wight West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010No data
2015No data
2017No data
2019notionalConservative winnerBob Seely Isleof Wight MP, pre-review boundary24.5%55.0%0.0%-16.4%4.1%11,61869.4%
2024Lab gain from ConRichard Quigley38.6%29.3%7.9%17.0% Ref6.7%0.3%3,17761.9%-7.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Isle of Wight West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Isle of Wight West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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