Gainsborough
East Midlands · County constituency · West Lindsey borough
About the Gainsborough constituency
Gainsborough is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Sir Edward Leigh (Conservative), first elected in June 1983. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 28.1% for Labour, a majority of 3,532 votes on a 61.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.2% and the Conservatives on 29.8%, a margin of 2.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Gainsborough? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gainsborough vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gainsborough
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gainsborough within West Lindsey
Gainsborough sits entirely within West Lindsey Council. West Lindsey was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Lindsey | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardney | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 27.5% | 2023 Conservative 60.9%vs Green 20.7% | - | 34.9% |
| Caistor and Yarborough | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 26.0% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Lib Dem 38.2% | - | 27.1% |
| Cherry Willingham | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 37.1% | - | 37.2% |
| Dunholme and Welton | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 29.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 38.4% |
| Gainsborough East | Reform 31.9%vs Labour 27.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.9%vs Independent 16.0% | - | 21.4% |
| Gainsborough North | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.3%vs Others 20.7% | - | 33.0% |
| Gainsborough South-West | Labour 29.3%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.9%vs Labour 8.5% | - | 25.2% |
| Hemswell | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Independent 45.8%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 32.0% |
| Kelsey Wold | Conservative 44.0%vs Labour 21.9% | 2019 Conservative 64.2%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | - | 39.1% |
| Lea | Conservative 38.9%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.4%vs Conservative 48.6% | - | 38.9% |
| Market Rasen | Conservative 35.8%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.4%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 28.8% |
| Nettleham | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Conservative 44.0%vs Lib Dem 27.5% | - | 51.6% |
| Saxilby | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 67.0%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | - | 27.9% |
| Scampton | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 33.7% | 2023 Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 36.7% | - | 38.5% |
| Scotter and Blyton | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.3%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | 35.2% |
| Stow | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 42.1% | - | 33.8% |
| Sudbrooke | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 48.4% | - | 33.2% |
| Torksey | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | 38.3% |
| Waddingham and Spital | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Conservative 58.3%vs Lib Dem 41.7% | - | 32.2% |
| Wold View | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 28.3% | 2023 Conservative 55.9%vs Lib Dem 44.1% | - | 30.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gainsborough at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gainsborough at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Edward Leigh | 15.6% | 49.3% | 27.8% | 10,559 | 67.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Edward Leigh | 21.3% | 52.7% | 6.7% | 15,449 | 66.0%-1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Edward Leigh | 28.7% | 61.8% | 7.1% | 17,023 | 67.8%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Edward Leigh 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.2% | 66.3% | 10.4% | 22,172 | 65.7%-2.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Edward Leigh | 28.1% | 35.6% | 10.7% | 3,532 | 61.6%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gainsborough
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gainsborough. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave62.0 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.5vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.0 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 31.8vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.0 / 59.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.9 / 9.9vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 28.5vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.4vs 30.2
- ↑Leave62.0 / 60.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.