Constituency profile

North Cornwall

South West · County constituency · Cornwall borough

Ben Maguire MP
Sitting MP

Ben Maguire

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Cornwall council
Last 5 GE winners
LDCCCLD
Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 2/5
EU referendum 2016
60.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +8.3pp above mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +3.2pp
vs Reform UK 33.0%
SouthernStrong Leave area

About the North Cornwall constituency

North Cornwall is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Ben Maguire (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 47.0% to 27.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,957 votes on a 66.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 36.2% and Reform UK on 33.0%, a margin of 3.2 points.

Who lives in North Cornwall? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
60.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
28.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
48.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.4%
UK average ~28%

How did North Cornwall vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 9,957 votes (19.4pp) · turnout 66.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of North Cornwall

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

North Cornwall within Cornwall

North Cornwall sits entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Cornwall
56 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Altarnun & Stoke ClimslandLib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 20.8%2021 Lib Dem 51.1%vs Independent 39.8%--
Bodmin St Mary's & St LeonardLib Dem 50.9%vs Conservative 20.7%2021 Lib Dem 47.3%vs Conservative 28.4%--
Bodmin St Petroc'sLib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 22.5%2021 Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 36.3%--
BudeLib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 24.3%2021 Lib Dem 37.3%vs Conservative 26.9%-31.5%
Camelford & BoscastleLib Dem 43.2%vs Conservative 29.9%2021 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 32.2%--
Lanivet, Blisland & Bodmin St LawrenceLib Dem 50.4%vs Conservative 32.5%2021 Conservative 41.8%vs Lib Dem 41.5%--
Launceston North & North PetherwinLib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 29.1%2021 Independent 51.7%vs Conservative 37.9%-61.1%
Launceston SouthLib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 27.0%2021 Conservative 42.4%vs Lib Dem 42.2%-49.2%
PadstowLib Dem 35.4%vs Conservative 32.7%2021 Independent 47.4%vs Conservative 43.9%-63.2%
PoundstockLib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 24.4%2021 Lib Dem 45.2%vs Conservative 28.3%-55.5%
St Columb Major, St Mawgan & St WennLib Dem 38.1%vs Conservative 30.7%2021 Independent 44.5%vs Conservative 34.7%--
St Teath & TintagelLib Dem 52.0%vs Conservative 25.9%2021 Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 40.0%--
Stratton, Kilkhampton & MorwenstowLib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 28.7%2021 Conservative 43.4%vs Lib Dem 36.8%--
Wadebridge East & St MinverLib Dem 44.9%vs Conservative 30.9%2021 Conservative 48.6%vs Lib Dem 32.7%--
Wadebridge West & St MabynLib Dem 44.0%vs Conservative 27.8%2021 Independent 57.4%vs Conservative 26.2%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for North Cornwall at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won North Cornwall at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdDan Rogerson4.2%41.7%48.1%4.9% UKIP-1.1%2,98168.9%
2015Con gain from LDScott Mann5.4%45.0%31.2%12.7% UKIP4.3%1.4%6,62171.8%+2.9
2017Con holdScott Mann12.1%50.7%36.6%--0.6%7,20074.0%+2.2
2019notionalConservative winnerScott Mann 2019 MP, pre-review boundary9.6%59.1%29.9%-0.2%1.2%15,78372.1%-1.9
2024LD gain from ConBen Maguire5.8%27.6%47.0%16.5% Ref2.6%0.5%9,95766.8%-5.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like North Cornwall

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Cornwall. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.