Scarborough and Whitby
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Yorkshire borough
About the Scarborough and Whitby constituency
Scarborough and Whitby is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Alison Hume (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.2% to 27.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,408 votes on a 59.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and the Conservatives on 27.2%, a margin of 3.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Scarborough and Whitby? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Scarborough and Whitby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Scarborough and Whitby
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Scarborough and Whitby within North Yorkshire
Scarborough and Whitby sits entirely within North Yorkshire Council. North Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Yorkshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2025 | Eastfield | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 63% Lab 14% Other 14% |
| 27 May 2023 | Eastfield | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle | Labour 45.4%vs Reform 22.0% | 2022 Independent 50.2%vs Labour 35.6% | - | 23.6% |
| Cayton | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2022 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 27.2% | - | - |
| Danby & Mulgrave | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 34.1% | 2022 Conservative 48.5%vs Labour 26.2% | - | - |
| Derwent Valley & Moor | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 32.0% | 2022 Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 32.8% | - | - |
| Eastfield | Labour 47.6%vs Reform 24.6% | 2022 Labour 73.3%vs Conservative 22.4% | - | - |
| Esk Valley & Coast | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 35.9% | 2022 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 28.3% | - | - |
| Falsgrave & Stepney | Labour 46.1%vs Reform 23.1% | 2022 Labour 50.1%vs Green 26.6% | - | 27.6% |
| Newby | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2022 Labour 38.1%vs Independent 30.4% | - | 31.7% |
| Northstead | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 23.5% | 2022 Labour 42.4%vs Independent 29.4% | - | 28.2% |
| Scalby & the Coast | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 33.8% | 2022 Conservative 38.5%vs Independent 30.3% | - | 28.4% |
| Seamer | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 32.4% | 2022 Conservative 43.9%vs Labour 24.7% | - | - |
| Weaponness & Ramshill | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2022 Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 36.2% |
| Whitby Streonshalh | Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2022 Labour 33.8%vs Others 26.9% | - | - |
| Whitby West | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 31.8% | 2022 Conservative 41.0%vs Others 27.9% | - | - |
| Woodlands | Labour 43.7%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2022 Labour 39.5%vs Independent 33.3% | - | 26.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Scarborough and Whitby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Scarborough and Whitby at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Robert Goodwill | 26.3% | 42.8% | 22.5% | 8,130 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Robert Goodwill | 30.2% | 43.2% | 4.5% | 6,200 | 64.9%-0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Robert Goodwill | 41.6% | 48.4% | 2.7% | 3,435 | 68.5%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Goodwill 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 34.8% | 55.5% | 6.1% | 10,270 | 67.3%-1.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alison Hume | 40.2% | 27.9% | 4.3% | 5,408 | 59.3%-8.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Scarborough and Whitby
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Scarborough and Whitby. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.9 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 60.2vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.9 / 31.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Leave61.3 / 59.5vs 53.2
- ↑Leave61.3 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.9 / 29.5vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.5 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↑Leave61.3 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.9 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 24.0vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.5 / 51.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.