Folkestone and Hythe
South East · County constituency · Folkestone and Hythe borough
About the Folkestone and Hythe constituency
Folkestone and Hythe is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Tony Vaughan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.7% to 26.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,729 votes on a 61.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.6% and Labour on 27.1%, a margin of 8.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Folkestone and Hythe? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Folkestone and Hythe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Folkestone and Hythe
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Folkestone and Hythe within Folkestone and Hythe
Folkestone and Hythe sits entirely within Folkestone and Hythe Council. Folkestone and Hythe was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Folkestone and Hythe | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2024 | Romney Marsh | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadmead | Labour 32.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 39.0% | - | 37.0% |
| Cheriton | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2023 Green 40.9%vs Conservative 22.4% | - | 34.3% |
| East Folkestone | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 25.0% | 2023 Labour 57.2%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 29.1% |
| Folkestone Central | Labour 39.2%vs Reform 25.6% | 2023 Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 34.4% |
| Folkestone Harbour | Labour 40.6%vs Reform 26.5% | 2023 Labour 49.4%vs Others 23.4% | - | 31.4% |
| Hythe | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Green 72.8%vs Conservative 23.5% | - | 48.0% |
| Hythe Rural | Conservative 28.0%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Green 64.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | - | 36.1% |
| New Romney | Labour 31.4%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Independent 47.5%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 25.3% |
| Romney Marsh | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 27.3% | - | 29.6% |
| Sandgate & West Folkestone | Labour 30.1%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 74.5%vs Conservative 16.5% | - | 46.0% |
| Walland & Denge Marsh | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 27.9% | 2023 Conservative 42.6%vs Independent 25.0% | - | 39.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Folkestone and Hythe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Folkestone and Hythe at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Damian Collins | 10.8% | 49.4% | 30.3% | 10,122 | 67.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Damian Collins | 14.4% | 47.9% | 8.9% | 13,797 | 65.8%-1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Damian Collins | 28.5% | 54.7% | 7.2% | 15,411 | 68.2%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Damian Collins 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 26.8% | 56.3% | 10.0% | 13,239 | 64.0%-4.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Tony Vaughan | 34.7% | 26.1% | 4.0% | 3,729 | 61.7%-2.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Folkestone and Hythe
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Folkestone and Hythe. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave61.6 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+29.5 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.6 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.5 / 30.9vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.5 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↑Leave61.6 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+29.5 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+29.5 / 29.1vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.5 / 51.8vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3524.7 / 26.0vs 30.2
- ↑Leave61.6 / 64.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.6 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 11.1vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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