St Austell and Newquay
South West · County constituency · Cornwall
About the St Austell and Newquay constituency
St Austell and Newquay is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Noah Law (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.1% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,470 votes on a 61.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.3% and Reform UK on 32.9%, a margin of 1.4 points.
Who lives in St Austell and Newquay? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did St Austell and Newquay vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of St Austell and Newquay
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
St Austell and Newquay within Cornwall
St Austell and Newquay sits entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cornwall | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | Newquay Porth & Tretherras | Ref HOLD | Ref 30% Grn 25% Other 17% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | St Columb Minor & Colan | Ref HOLD | Ref 32% Other 26% LD 23% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fowey, Tywardreath & Par | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 26.7% | 2025 Reform 31.7%vs Labour 21.7% | - | - |
| Mevagissey & St Austell Bay | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 26.7% | 2025 Conservative 49.9%vs Reform 19.7% | - | - |
| Newquay Central & Pentire | Labour 44.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2025 Lib Dem 34.7%vs Reform 32.0% | - | - |
| Newquay Porth & Tretherras | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 27.5% | 2025 Reform 37.9%vs Lib Dem 26.2% | - | - |
| Newquay Trenance | Labour 31.6%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2025 Green 31.8%vs Reform 31.4% | - | - |
| Penwithick & Boscoppa | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2025 Reform 34.3%vs Others 29.9% | - | - |
| Roche & Bugle | Labour 28.4%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2025 Reform 40.6%vs Others 27.8% | - | - |
| St Austell Bethel & Holmbush | Conservative 32.7%vs Labour 32.1% | 2025 Conservative 44.1%vs Reform 36.9% | - | - |
| St Austell Central & Gover | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2025 Reform 35.6%vs Others 28.9% | - | - |
| St Austell Poltair & Mount Charles | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2025 Reform 38.1%vs Lib Dem 19.2% | - | - |
| St Blazey | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2025 Conservative 39.3%vs Reform 35.8% | - | - |
| St Columb Minor & Colan | Labour 37.2%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2025 Reform 35.9%vs Independent 30.4% | - | - |
| St Dennis & St Enoder | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2025 Others 58.2%vs Reform 31.6% | - | - |
| St Mewan & Grampound | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2025 Reform 32.4%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | - |
| St Stephen-in-Brannel | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2025 Reform 36.5%vs Independent 25.8% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for St Austell and Newquay at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won St Austell and Newquay at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Stephen Gilbert | 7.2% | 40.0% | 42.7% | 1,312 | 62.7% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Steve Double | 10.2% | 40.2% | 24.0% | 8,173 | 65.7%+3.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Steve Double | 29.0% | 49.5% | 21.5% | 11,142 | 69.0%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Steve Double 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 26.6% | 55.6% | 10.8% | 15,942 | 73.9%+4.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Noah Law | 34.1% | 28.9% | 10.3% | 2,470 | 61.4%-12.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like St Austell and Newquay
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to St Austell and Newquay. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.1 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.1 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.1 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.1 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 10.3vs 16.8
- ↑Leave64.1 / 60.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 28.0vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.4 / 22.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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