Gosport
South East · Borough constituency
About the Gosport constituency
Gosport is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dame Caroline Dinenage (Conservative), MP since May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.3% to 26.6% for Labour, a majority of 6,054 votes on a 60.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 40.6% and Reform UK on 27.9%, a margin of 12.7 points.
Who lives in Gosport? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gosport vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gosport
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gosport within Gosport and Fareham
Gosport crosses council boundaries: Gosport (86%), Fareham (14%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Gosport | 86% | 2026 result › |
| Fareham | 14% | 2026 result › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgemary | Ref | Ref 45% LD 24% Con 20% | 40.7% |
| Fareham Crofton | Con | Con 49% Ref 22% LD 15% | 53.3% |
| Hardway | Ref | Ref 39% LD 29% Con 17% | 40.3% |
| Lee | Con | Con 45% Ref 31% Grn 9% | 44.6% |
| Leesland & Town | Con | Con 36% Ref 28% LD 18% | 46.3% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverstoke | Conservative 45.7%vs Labour 22.1% | May 2026 Conservative 43.0%vs Reform 25.3% | Conservative share -2.7pp | - |
| Anglesey | Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 23.5% | May 2026 Conservative 50.1%vs Reform 24.1% | Conservative share +3.2pp | - |
| Bridgemary | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 45.6%vs Lib Dem 37.1% | Conservative→Reform +26.4pp | - |
| Brockhurst & Privett | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 35.1%vs Lib Dem 33.1% | Conservative→Reform +16.0pp | - |
| Elson | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 26.7% | May 2026 Reform 39.4%vs Lib Dem 34.8% | Conservative→Reform +20.2pp | - |
| Forton | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 35.8%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | Conservative→Reform +17.9pp | - |
| Grange & Alver Valley | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 29.5% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Labour 22.5% | Labour→Reform +16.9pp | - |
| Harbourside & Town | Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 29.8% | May 2026 Reform 32.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
| Hardway | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 24.5% | May 2026 Reform 38.5%vs Lib Dem 26.4% | Conservative→Reform +18.2pp | - |
| Hill Head | Conservative 48.7%vs Labour 20.9% | May 2026 Conservative 49.2%vs Reform 21.3% | Conservative share +0.6pp | 53.9% |
| Lee East | Conservative 43.9%vs Labour 22.5% | May 2026 Conservative 53.7%vs Reform 28.1% | Conservative share +9.9pp | - |
| Lee West | Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 27.7% | May 2026 Conservative 53.5%vs Reform 26.0% | Conservative share +9.1pp | - |
| Leesland & Newtown | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 29.3% | May 2026 Reform 33.2%vs Lib Dem 30.7% | Conservative→Reform +17.2pp | - |
| Peel Common | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 31.0% | May 2026 Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 35.6% | Conservative share -0.2pp | - |
| Rowner & Holbrook | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 26.0% | May 2026 Reform 48.7%vs Lib Dem 25.2% | Conservative→Reform +25.1pp | - |
| Stubbington | Conservative 49.1%vs Labour 19.6% | May 2026 Conservative 47.9%vs Reform 22.6% | Conservative share -1.3pp | 51.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gosport at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gosport at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Caroline Dinenage | 16.9% | 51.8% | 21.1% | 14,413 | 64.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Caroline Dinenage | 14.5% | 55.3% | 6.9% | 17,098 | 65.1%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Caroline Dinenage | 27.2% | 61.9% | 4.7% | 17,211 | 66.7%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Caroline Dinenage 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.5% | 66.5% | 11.3% | 23,278 | 65.7%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Caroline Dinenage | 26.6% | 40.3% | 9.1% | 6,054 | 60.4%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gosport
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gosport. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave61.8 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.4 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.8 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 29.3vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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