Constituency profile

Camborne and Redruth

South West · County constituency · Cornwall borough

Perran Moon MP
Sitting MP

Perran Moon

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Cornwall council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
58.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +6.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +2.4pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernLeave-leaning

About the Camborne and Redruth constituency

Camborne and Redruth is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Perran Moon (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.5% to 24.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,806 votes on a 64.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.5% and Labour on 31.1%, a margin of 2.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Camborne and Redruth? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
58.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
29.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Camborne and Redruth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 7,806 votes (16.3pp) · turnout 64.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Camborne and Redruth

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Camborne and Redruth within Cornwall

Camborne and Redruth sits entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Cornwall
58 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Camborne Roskear & TuckingmillLabour 40.3%vs Reform 22.4%2021 Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 26.5%--
Camborne TrelowarrenLabour 42.1%vs Conservative 22.1%2021 Independent 45.0%vs Conservative 23.8%-41.8%
Camborne West & TreswithianLabour 36.0%vs Conservative 26.1%2021 Conservative 44.9%vs Others 27.4%--
Constantine, Mabe & MawnanLabour 39.0%vs Conservative 29.2%2021 Conservative 47.5%vs Labour 22.4%--
Four Lanes, Beacon & TroonLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 24.2%2021 Conservative 42.1%vs Labour 27.9%--
Gwinear-Gwithian & Hayle EastLabour 39.3%vs Conservative 27.1%2021 Conservative 51.7%vs Lib Dem 30.1%--
Hayle WestLabour 43.6%vs Conservative 20.5%2021 Independent 34.6%vs Conservative 30.0%--
Illogan & PortreathLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 24.9%2021 Conservative 50.7%vs Lib Dem 34.9%--
Lanner, Stithians & GwennapLabour 42.2%vs Conservative 24.9%2021 Independent 59.2%vs Conservative 17.9%--
PerranporthLabour 38.1%vs Conservative 27.2%2021 Conservative 33.6%vs Independent 26.7%-47.5%
Pool & TehidyLabour 41.9%vs Conservative 23.6%2021 Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 26.9%-34.2%
Redruth Central, Carharrack & St DayLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 30.3%2021 Conservative 50.3%vs Independent 28.8%--
Redruth NorthLabour 47.5%vs Reform 20.2%2021 Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 33.8%-23.4%
Redruth SouthLabour 38.9%vs Conservative 22.7%2021 Independent 38.3%vs Conservative 34.3%-49.5%
St AgnesLabour 42.8%vs Conservative 18.9%2021 Lib Dem 56.9%vs Conservative 17.9%-54.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Camborne and Redruth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Camborne and Redruth at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LDGeorge Eustice16.3%37.6%37.4%5.1% UKIP1.4%2.2%6666.4%
2015Con holdGeorge Eustice25.0%40.2%12.4%14.8% UKIP5.7%2.0%7,00468.5%+2.1
2017Con holdGeorge Eustice44.2%47.5%6.1%-2.2%-1,57770.8%+2.3
2019notionalConservative winnerGeorge Eustice 2019 MP, pre-review boundary34.2%53.3%8.5%-2.8%1.2%9,84870.1%-0.7
2024Lab gain from ConPerran Moon40.5%24.2%8.6%18.7% Ref5.9%2.0%7,80664.3%-5.8

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Camborne and Redruth

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Camborne and Redruth. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.