Dover and Deal
South East · County constituency · Dover borough
About the Dover and Deal constituency
Dover and Deal is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Mike Tapp (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.6% to 23.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,585 votes on a 62.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.2% and Labour on 33.2%, a margin of 1.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Dover and Deal? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dover and Deal vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dover and Deal
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dover and Deal within Dover
Dover and Deal sits entirely within Dover Council. Dover was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dover | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alkham & Capel-le-Ferne | Labour 30.6%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Conservative 49.6%vs Labour 31.8% | - | 32.4% |
| Aylesham, Eythorne & Shepherdswell | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 22.7% | 2023 Labour 58.0%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 33.5% |
| Buckland | Labour 39.3%vs Reform 27.3% | 2023 Labour 64.4%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 20.1% |
| Dover Downs & River | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 43.2%vs Lib Dem 24.4% | - | 48.4% |
| Eastry Rural | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Conservative 41.1%vs Green 35.1% | - | 39.7% |
| Guston, Kingsdown & St Margaret's-at-Cliffe | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 29.1% | - | 50.1% |
| Maxton & Elms Vale | Labour 42.3%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Labour 40.6%vs Independent 29.4% | - | 33.2% |
| Middle Deal | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Labour 58.6%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | 37.4% |
| Mill Hill | Labour 44.0%vs Reform 23.3% | 2023 Labour 58.5%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 35.5% |
| North Deal | Labour 41.4%vs Reform 22.9% | 2023 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 39.5% |
| St Radigunds | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 27.5% | 2023 Labour 52.7%vs Conservative 27.4% | - | 22.6% |
| Tower Hamlets | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 27.1% | 2023 Labour 75.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 21.7% |
| Town & Castle | Labour 41.4%vs Reform 27.2% | 2023 Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 24.3% |
| Walmer | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2023 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 29.8% | - | 49.0% |
| Whitfield | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.2%vs Labour 30.4% | - | 33.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dover and Deal at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dover and Deal at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Charlie Elphicke Dover MP | 33.5% | 44.0% | 15.8% | 5,274 | 70.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Charlie Elphicke Dover MP | 30.7% | 43.3% | 3.1% | 6,294 | 68.9%-1.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Charlie Elphicke Dover MP | 40.0% | 52.4% | 2.6% | 6,437 | 69.7%+0.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Natalie Elphicke Dover MP, pre-review boundary | 32.6% | 56.9% | 5.7% | 12,421 | 67.5% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Mike Tapp | 39.6% | 21.7% | 5.4% | 7,585 | 62.5%-5.0 |
Dover and Deal was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Dover (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Dover and Deal
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dover and Deal. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave62.4 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.0 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.1 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.4 / 63.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.0 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.1 / 30.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.4 / 64.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.0 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.1 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.4 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.0 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.1 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↑Leave62.4 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.0 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.1 / 28.9vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.