Constituency profile

Wyre Forest

West Midlands · County constituency · Wyre Forest borough

Mark Garnier MP
Sitting MP

Mark Garnier

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency, Wyre Forest council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
63.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +11.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +1.0pp
vs Reform UK 31.0%
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Wyre Forest constituency

Wyre Forest is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Mark Garnier (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 32.1% to 30.3% for Labour, a majority of 812 votes on a 58.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.9% and Reform UK on 31.0%, a margin of 1.0 points.

Who lives in Wyre Forest? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
63.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.1%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
68.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
47.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Wyre Forest vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 812 votes (1.8pp) · turnout 58.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wyre Forest

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wyre Forest within Wyre Forest

Wyre Forest sits entirely within Wyre Forest Council. Wyre Forest was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Wyre Forest
67 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Aggborough & SpennellsConservative 27.1%vs Labour 26.4%2023 Independent 66.1%vs Conservative 21.1%-38.2%
Areley Kings & RiversideConservative 31.2%vs Labour 31.0%2023 Conservative 44.3%vs Independent 22.8%-34.9%
Bewdley & RockConservative 35.1%vs Labour 29.2%2023 Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 21.7%-41.0%
Blakebrook & Habberley SouthLabour 31.4%vs Conservative 28.6%2023 Conservative 38.0%vs Green 36.1%-34.1%
BroadwatersLabour 34.0%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Independent 42.4%vs Conservative 27.6%-35.0%
Foley Park & HoobrookConservative 34.1%vs Labour 30.5%2023 Conservative 51.4%vs Green 19.9%-33.4%
Franche & Habberley NorthConservative 34.0%vs Labour 33.5%2023 Conservative 47.1%vs Lib Dem 21.5%-39.1%
LickhillConservative 32.4%vs Labour 26.1%2023 Conservative 40.7%vs Lib Dem 22.2%-30.7%
MittonConservative 31.9%vs Labour 30.4%2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Independent 16.9%-43.4%
Offmore & CombertonLabour 29.9%vs Conservative 28.2%2023 Lib Dem 41.7%vs Conservative 30.2%-36.7%
Wribbenhall & ArleyConservative 35.8%vs Labour 29.3%2023 Conservative 51.6%vs Green 18.0%-41.2%
Wyre Forest RuralConservative 37.9%vs Labour 28.5%2023 Conservative 57.9%vs Labour 24.6%-39.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wyre Forest at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wyre Forest at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from KHHCMark Garnier14.3%36.9%11.9%2.9% UKIP-33.9%2,64366.3%
2015Con holdMark Garnier19.3%45.3%2.5%16.1% UKIP2.3%14.6%12,87163.9%-2.4
2017Con holdMark Garnier32.3%58.4%3.8%3.5% UKIP2.0%-13,33465.8%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerMark Garnier 2019 MP, pre-review boundary22.8%65.2%8.1%-3.9%-21,41365.7%-0.1
2024Con holdMark Garnier30.3%32.1%6.2%21.4% Ref5.4%4.6%81258.4%-7.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Wyre Forest

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wyre Forest. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.