Mid Norfolk
East of England · County constituency
About the Mid Norfolk constituency
Mid Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is George Freeman (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.5% to 29.9% for Labour, a majority of 3,054 votes on a 61.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 40.0% and the Conservatives on 24.4%, a margin of 15.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Mid Norfolk? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Norfolk
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mid Norfolk within Breckland and South Norfolk
Mid Norfolk crosses council boundaries: Breckland (91%), South Norfolk (9%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Breckland | 91% |
| South Norfolk | 9% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attleborough | Ref | Ref 49% Grn 19% Con 19% | 37.5% |
| Dereham North & Scarning | Con | Con 37% Ref 34% Grn 12% | 40.0% |
| Dereham South | Ref | Ref 42% Con 21% Lab 16% | 35.8% |
| Elmham & Mattishall | Ref | Ref 35% Con 34% LD 13% | 47.1% |
| Guiltcross | Ref | Ref 36% Con 29% Grn 15% | 45.0% |
| Launditch | Ref | Ref 40% Con 26% LD 17% | 49.8% |
| Watton | Ref | Ref 47% Con 29% Grn 12% | 37.8% |
| Yare & Necton | Ref | Ref 45% Con 26% Grn 12% | 48.6% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | Hermitage | Con GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Saints & Wayland | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 48.5%vs Lib Dem 33.5% | - | 32.5% |
| Attleborough Burgh & Haverscroft | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 26.7% | 2023 Conservative 51.0%vs Labour 26.9% | - | 32.4% |
| Attleborough Queens & Besthorpe | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 34.7% | - | 28.0% |
| Dereham Neatherd | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Labour 22.6% | - | 44.4% |
| Dereham Toftwood | Labour 32.3%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 47.8% | - | 24.0% |
| Dereham Withburga | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Labour 68.6%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 22.4% |
| Hermitage | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 38.7% | - | 33.9% |
| Hingham & Deopham | Conservative 51.2%vs Labour 20.6% | 2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Labour 26.6% | - | 33.0% |
| Launditch | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 25.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Lib Dem 29.2% | - | 34.9% |
| Lincoln | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Conservative 41.9%vs Independent 40.3% | - | 46.5% |
| Mattishall | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 52.2%vs Labour 24.7% | - | 41.6% |
| Necton | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 49.1% | - | 35.6% |
| Saham Toney | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2023 Conservative 67.4%vs Green 32.6% | - | 28.6% |
| Shipdham-with-Scarning | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 46.0%vs Labour 34.6% | - | 32.8% |
| The Buckenhams & Banham | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 26.7% | 2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Labour 40.1% | - | 30.8% |
| Upper Wensum | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 55.2%vs Lib Dem 44.8% | - | 34.0% |
| Watton | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 30.2% | 2023 Independent 39.9%vs Conservative 33.7% | - | 33.5% |
| Wicklewood | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 51.3%vs Green 24.9% | - | 40.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Norfolk at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | George Freeman | 17.4% | 49.5% | 22.2% | 13,856 | 68.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | George Freeman | 18.4% | 52.1% | 6.3% | 17,276 | 67.7%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | George Freeman | 30.1% | 59.0% | 5.1% | 16,086 | 69.6%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | George Freeman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.9% | 64.4% | 10.4% | 20,388 | 69.1%-0.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | George Freeman | 29.9% | 36.5% | 6.8% | 3,054 | 61.0%-8.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Mid Norfolk
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Norfolk. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 30.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave60.6 / 63.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 29.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 32.0vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 59.0vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 28.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.8 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 29.2vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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