Constituency profile

Mid Norfolk

East of England · County constituency

George Freeman MP
Sitting MP

George Freeman

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
60.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +8.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +15.6pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Mid Norfolk constituency

Mid Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is George Freeman (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.5% to 29.9% for Labour, a majority of 3,054 votes on a 61.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 40.0% and the Conservatives on 24.4%, a margin of 15.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Mid Norfolk? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
60.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
70.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
28.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
47.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Mid Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,054 votes (6.6pp) · turnout 61.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Mid Norfolk

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Mid Norfolk within Breckland and South Norfolk

Mid Norfolk crosses council boundaries: Breckland (91%), South Norfolk (9%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Breckland
49 LSOAs
91%
South Norfolk
5 LSOAs
9%

Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
AttleboroughRefRef 49% Grn 19% Con 19%37.5%
Dereham North & ScarningConCon 37% Ref 34% Grn 12%40.0%
Dereham SouthRefRef 42% Con 21% Lab 16%35.8%
Elmham & MattishallRefRef 35% Con 34% LD 13%47.1%
GuiltcrossRefRef 36% Con 29% Grn 15%45.0%
LaunditchRefRef 40% Con 26% LD 17%49.8%
WattonRefRef 47% Con 29% Grn 12%37.8%
Yare & NectonRefRef 45% Con 26% Grn 12%48.6%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 May 2024Hermitage
Breckland
Con GAIN from LD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
All Saints & WaylandConservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.7%2023 Conservative 48.5%vs Lib Dem 33.5%-32.5%
Attleborough Burgh & HaverscroftConservative 35.4%vs Labour 26.7%2023 Conservative 51.0%vs Labour 26.9%-32.4%
Attleborough Queens & BesthorpeConservative 36.2%vs Labour 30.1%2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 34.7%-28.0%
Dereham NeatherdLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 31.9%2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Labour 22.6%-44.4%
Dereham ToftwoodLabour 32.3%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 47.8%-24.0%
Dereham WithburgaLabour 36.4%vs Conservative 26.1%2023 Labour 68.6%vs Conservative 31.4%-22.4%
HermitageConservative 38.5%vs Labour 25.9%2023 Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 38.7%-33.9%
Hingham & DeophamConservative 51.2%vs Labour 20.6%2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Labour 26.6%-33.0%
LaunditchConservative 40.5%vs Labour 25.1%2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Lib Dem 29.2%-34.9%
LincolnConservative 36.6%vs Labour 28.7%2023 Conservative 41.9%vs Independent 40.3%-46.5%
MattishallConservative 36.7%vs Labour 31.5%2023 Conservative 52.2%vs Labour 24.7%-41.6%
NectonConservative 36.5%vs Labour 30.8%2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 49.1%-35.6%
Saham ToneyLabour 34.6%vs Conservative 33.1%2023 Conservative 67.4%vs Green 32.6%-28.6%
Shipdham-with-ScarningConservative 38.7%vs Labour 30.9%2023 Conservative 46.0%vs Labour 34.6%-32.8%
The Buckenhams & BanhamConservative 38.7%vs Labour 26.7%2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Labour 40.1%-30.8%
Upper WensumConservative 37.3%vs Labour 30.6%2023 Conservative 55.2%vs Lib Dem 44.8%-34.0%
WattonConservative 35.9%vs Labour 30.2%2023 Independent 39.9%vs Conservative 33.7%-33.5%
WicklewoodConservative 41.3%vs Labour 29.6%2023 Conservative 51.3%vs Green 24.9%-40.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Mid Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Mid Norfolk at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdGeorge Freeman17.4%49.5%22.2%5.5% UKIP2.9%2.5%13,85668.4%
2015Con holdGeorge Freeman18.4%52.1%6.3%19.0% UKIP4.2%-17,27667.7%-0.7
2017Con holdGeorge Freeman30.1%59.0%5.1%3.8% UKIP2.1%-16,08669.6%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerGeorge Freeman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary22.9%64.4%10.4%-0.3%2.0%20,38869.1%-0.5
2024Con holdGeorge Freeman29.9%36.5%6.8%20.5% Ref6.2%-3,05461.0%-8.1

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Mid Norfolk

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Norfolk. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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