Harwich and North Essex
East of England · County constituency
About the Harwich and North Essex constituency
Harwich and North Essex is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Sir Bernard Jenkin (Conservative), first elected in April 1992. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.4% to 32.0% for Labour, a majority of 1,162 votes on a 63.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 40.3% and the Conservatives on 25.5%, a margin of 14.9 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Harwich and North Essex? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harwich and North Essex vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harwich and North Essex
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harwich and North Essex within Colchester and Tendring
Harwich and North Essex crosses council boundaries: Colchester (50%), Tendring (50%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 50% | View projection › |
| Tendring | 50% | — |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brightlingsea | Ref | Ref 32% Independent 24% LD 20% | 45.7% |
| Constable | Con | Con 40% Ref 29% Grn 11% | 49.1% |
| Harwich | Ref | Ref 44% Lab 38% Con 9% | 39.1% |
| Tendring Rural West | Ref | Ref 34% Con 25% LD 24% | 46.9% |
| Wivenhoe St Andrew | LD | LD 43% Ref 20% Lab 17% | 34.6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alresford & Elmstead | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 22.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.8%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 33.9% |
| Ardleigh & Little Bromley | Conservative 39.0%vs Reform 22.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 43.7% | - | 31.8% |
| Brightlingsea | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Independent 70.8%vs Conservative 12.8% | - | 22.6% |
| Dovercourt All Saints | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 27.0% | 2023 Labour 65.2%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 28.0% |
| Dovercourt Bay | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Labour 68.7%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 27.7% |
| Dovercourt Tollgate | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 44.6% | - | 23.4% |
| Dovercourt Vines & Parkeston | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Labour 66.3%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 23.7% |
| Harwich & Kingsway | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Labour 72.9%vs Conservative 21.8% | - | 25.8% |
| Lawford, Manningtree & Mistley | Conservative 33.7%vs Labour 31.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 38.7%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 37.7% |
| Lexden and Braiswick | Conservative 43.0%vs Labour 25.4% | May 2026 Conservative 45.0%vs Reform 25.2% | Conservative share +2.0pp | - |
| Mersea and Pyefleet | Conservative 48.1%vs Labour 23.2% | May 2026 Conservative 38.2%vs Reform 35.7% | Conservative share -9.9pp | - |
| Old Heath and The Hythe | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 22.2% | May 2026 Labour 40.3%vs Reform 31.7% | Labour share -6.4pp | - |
| Rural North | Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 22.3% | May 2026 Conservative 42.2%vs Reform 31.7% | Conservative share -4.3pp | - |
| Stour Valley | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 25.5% | - | 39.9% |
| Wivenhoe | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Green 32.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +33.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harwich and North Essex at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harwich and North Essex at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Bernard Jenkin | 19.9% | 46.9% | 23.6% | 11,447 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Bernard Jenkin | 19.7% | 51.0% | 7.4% | 15,174 | 69.9%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Bernard Jenkin | 30.4% | 58.5% | 5.4% | 14,356 | 71.7%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bernard Jenkin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.9% | 58.6% | 10.7% | 17,651 | 72.3%+0.6 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Bernard Jenkin | 32.0% | 34.4% | 7.4% | 1,162 | 63.0%-9.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Harwich and North Essex
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harwich and North Essex. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 27.6vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.9 / 10.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.9 / 10.1vs 16.8
- ↑Leave59.0 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.9 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+28.5 / 29.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+28.5 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.0 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.0 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+28.5 / 30.6vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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