Barrow and Furness
North West · County constituency
About the Barrow and Furness constituency
Barrow and Furness is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Michelle Scrogham (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 31.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,324 votes on a 56.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.1% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 7.1 points.
Who lives in Barrow and Furness? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Barrow and Furness vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Barrow and Furness
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Barrow and Furness within Westmorland and Furness and Cumberland
Barrow and Furness crosses council boundaries: Westmorland and Furness (90%), Cumberland (10%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Westmorland and Furness | 90% |
| Cumberland | 10% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2026 | Hawcoat & Newbarns | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 48% Lab 24% Con 19% |
| 27 May 2023 | Old Barrow and Hindpool | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton North | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 37.7% | 2022 Conservative 63.9%vs Labour 20.9% | - | 32.0% |
| Dalton South | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2022 Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 31.5% | - | 33.0% |
| Hawcoat and Newbarns | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 34.7% | 2022 Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 35.5% | - | 31.0% |
| High Furness | Conservative 40.0%vs Labour 30.2% | 2022 Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 40.0% | - | 46.0% |
| Low Furness | Conservative 48.1%vs Labour 29.5% | 2022 Conservative 44.5%vs Lib Dem 42.9% | - | 44.0% |
| Millom | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2022 Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 48.6% | - | 29.9% |
| Millom Without | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2022 Conservative 55.3%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 40.3% |
| Old Barrow and Hindpool | Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2022 Labour 67.5%vs Conservative 26.5% | - | 21.0% |
| Ormsgill and Parkside | Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2022 Labour 64.4%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 25.0% |
| Risedale and Roosecote | Labour 46.9%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2022 Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 42.4% | - | 28.0% |
| Ulverston | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2022 Labour 32.6%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 43.0% |
| Walney Island | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2022 Labour 60.4%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 27.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Barrow and Furness at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Barrow and Furness at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | John Woodcock | 48.1% | 36.3% | 10.0% | 5,208 | 64.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | John Woodcock | 42.3% | 40.5% | 2.7% | 795 | 63.3%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | John Woodcock | 47.5% | 47.0% | 2.7% | 209 | 68.5%+5.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Simon Fell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 38.2% | 53.1% | 4.5% | 7,436 | 65.3%-3.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Michelle Scrogham | 43.9% | 31.3% | 4.0% | 5,324 | 56.3%-9.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Barrow and Furness
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Barrow and Furness. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 27.8vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 9.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.3 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 29.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 10.1vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+27.2 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+27.2 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+27.2 / 28.2vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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