Eastbourne
South East · Borough constituency · Eastbourne borough
About the Eastbourne constituency
Eastbourne is a borough constituency in the South East, covering most or all of Eastbourne. The sitting MP is Josh Babarinde (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Eastbourne with 52.1% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 25.3%, a majority of 12,204 votes. Turnout was 62.8%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 49.9% and Reform UK on 22.6% in Eastbourne, a margin of 27.3 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Eastbourne is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 57.5% voted Leave in 2016). About 29.8% of residents hold a degree, 59.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 46 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Liberal Democrats 3 times, the Conservatives 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Eastbourne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Eastbourne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Eastbourne
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Eastbourne within Eastbourne
The Westminster constituency of Eastbourne sits entirely within Eastbourne Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - Eastbourne District Council was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Eastbourne | 100% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devonshire | LD | LD 44% Ref 26% Grn 14% | 35.3% |
| Hampden Park | LD | LD 45% Ref 34% Con 9% | 37.5% |
| Langney | LD | LD 50% Ref 36% Con 7% | 36.6% |
| Meads | LD | LD 34% Con 25% Ref 23% | 53.1% |
| Old Town | LD | LD 58% Ref 18% Con 11% | 51.7% |
| Ratton | Con | Con 32% LD 31% Ref 27% | 50.1% |
| Sovereign | Ref | Ref 38% Con 29% LD 24% | 45.9% |
| St. Anthony's | LD | LD 41% Ref 34% Con 13% | 42.7% |
| Upperton | LD | LD 48% Ref 24% Con 13% | 44.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Langney | LD HOLD | LD 50% Ref 32% Con 12% |
| 1 May 2025 | Upperton | LD HOLD | LD 49% Con 24% Ref 17% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Eastbourne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Eastbourne at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD gain from Con | Stephen Lloyd | 4.8% | 40.7% | 47.3% | 3,435 | 67.0% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Caroline Ansell | 7.8% | 39.6% | 38.2% | 733 | 67.6%+0.6 |
| 2017 | LD gain from Con | Stephen Lloyd | 8.1% | 44.1% | 46.9% | 1,609 | 72.9%+5.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Caroline Ansell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 6.9% | 47.1% | 42.9% | 2,168 | 69.9%-3.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Josh Babarinde | 5.9% | 25.3% | 52.1% | 12,204 | 62.8%-7.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Eastbourne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Eastbourne. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent26.6 / 26.5vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3526.0 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.8 / 53.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+29.1 / 29.5vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.8 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3526.0 / 24.7vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.6 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Employed51.8 / 51.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+29.1 / 26.6vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+29.1 / 30.9vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.8 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3526.0 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.5 / 57.2vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent26.6 / 24.0vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3526.0 / 27.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.