Hastings and Rye
South East · County constituency
About the Hastings and Rye constituency
Hastings and Rye is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Helena Dollimore (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.6% to 22.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,653 votes on a 60.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 30.9% and Reform UK on 30.4%, a margin of 0.5 points.
Who lives in Hastings and Rye? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hastings and Rye vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hastings and Rye
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hastings and Rye within Hastings and Rother
Hastings and Rye crosses council boundaries: Hastings (86%), Rother (14%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hastings | 86% | View projection › |
| Rother | 14% | — |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdown & Conquest | Ref | Ref 36% Grn 24% Con 21% | 0.0% |
| Baird & Ore | Grn | Grn 44% Ref 31% Lab 11% | 0.0% |
| Braybrooke & Castle | Grn | Grn 60% Ref 16% Lab 15% | 0.0% |
| Central St. Leonards & Gensing | Grn | Grn 59% Ref 17% Lab 15% | 0.0% |
| Hollington & Wishing Tree | Ref | Ref 39% Lab 24% Grn 20% | 0.0% |
| Maze Hill & West St. Leonards | Grn | Grn 35% Ref 29% Lab 19% | 0.0% |
| Old Hastings & Tressell | Grn | Grn 54% Ref 21% Lab 18% | 0.0% |
| Rye & Eastern Rother | Ref | Ref 30% Con 24% Grn 20% | 51.0% |
| St. Helens & Silverhill | Grn | Grn 29% Ref 29% Lab 19% | 0.0% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdown | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 31.1% | May 2026 Reform 37.0%vs Green 24.0% | Labour→Reform +18.3pp | - |
| Baird | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 22.7% | May 2026 Green 31.9%vs Reform 28.4% | Labour→Green +29.3pp | - |
| Braybrooke | Labour 48.2%vs Conservative 18.1% | May 2026 Green 59.0%vs Labour 17.4% | Labour→Green +38.0pp | - |
| Castle | Labour 44.8%vs Reform 16.0% | May 2026 Green 63.9%vs Reform 15.3% | Labour→Green +38.8pp | - |
| Central St Leonards | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 17.5% | May 2026 Green 61.1%vs Reform 17.7% | Labour→Green +36.5pp | - |
| Conquest | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 30.0% | May 2026 Reform 34.3%vs Green 25.1% | Labour→Reform +20.0pp | - |
| Eastern Rother | Labour 29.6%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 47.1%vs Green 41.0% | - | 38.6% |
| Gensing | Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 16.5% | May 2026 Green 66.2%vs Reform 16.8% | Labour→Green +42.1pp | - |
| Hollington | Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 18.7% | May 2026 Reform 38.0%vs Labour 20.5% | Labour→Reform +23.2pp | - |
| Maze Hill | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Green 48.4%vs Reform 24.9% | Labour→Green +31.0pp | - |
| Old Hastings | Labour 42.8%vs Green 19.2% | May 2026 Green 48.0%vs Labour 28.9% | Labour→Green +21.4pp | - |
| Ore | Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 21.9% | May 2026 Green 51.6%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour→Green +35.0pp | - |
| Rye & Winchelsea | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 27.0% | 2023 Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | - | 47.9% |
| Silverhill | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 24.5% | May 2026 Green 32.0%vs Reform 25.8% | Labour→Green +24.9pp | - |
| Southern Rother | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 31.0% | - | 53.4% |
| St Helens | Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 26.7% | May 2026 Reform 27.1%vs Green 25.1% | Labour→Reform +20.6pp | - |
| Tressell | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 17.0% | May 2026 Green 61.0%vs Reform 27.1% | Labour→Green +40.0pp | - |
| West St Leonards | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 26.6% | May 2026 Reform 33.9%vs Labour 24.8% | Labour→Reform +14.3pp | - |
| Wishing Tree | Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 19.3% | May 2026 Reform 35.5%vs Labour 25.1% | Labour→Reform +20.3pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hastings and Rye at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hastings and Rye at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Amber Rudd | 37.1% | 41.1% | 15.7% | 1,993 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Amber Rudd | 35.1% | 44.5% | 3.2% | 4,796 | 67.8%+3.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Amber Rudd | 46.2% | 46.9% | 3.4% | 346 | 69.9%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Sally-Ann Hart 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.4% | 49.1% | 7.4% | 3,532 | 69.5%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Helena Dollimore | 41.6% | 22.8% | 5.6% | 8,653 | 60.6%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hastings and Rye
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hastings and Rye. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 26.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.0vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 29.8vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 24.0vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.4vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.7vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 24.2vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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