Hastings and Rye
South East · County constituency
About the Hastings and Rye constituency
Hastings and Rye is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Hastings, Rother and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Helena Dollimore (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Hastings and Rye with 41.6% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 22.8%, a majority of 8,653 votes. Turnout was 60.6%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 30.0% and Labour on 25.2% in Hastings and Rye, a margin of 4.9 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Hastings and Rye is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 55.9% voted Leave in 2016). About 28.7% of residents hold a degree, 58.9% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 45 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Hastings and Rye? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hastings and Rye vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hastings and Rye
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Hastings and Rye within Hastings and Rother
Hastings and Rye crosses multiple council boundaries: Hastings (86%), Rother (14%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead. In addition, the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hastings | 86% | View projection › |
| Rother | 14% | — |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdown & Conquest | Ref | Ref 36% Grn 24% Con 21% | 0.0% |
| Baird & Ore | Grn | Grn 44% Ref 31% Lab 11% | 0.0% |
| Braybrooke & Castle | Grn | Grn 60% Ref 16% Lab 15% | 0.0% |
| Central St. Leonards & Gensing | Grn | Grn 59% Ref 17% Lab 15% | 0.0% |
| Hollington & Wishing Tree | Ref | Ref 39% Lab 24% Grn 20% | 0.0% |
| Maze Hill & West St. Leonards | Grn | Grn 35% Ref 29% Lab 19% | 0.0% |
| Old Hastings & Tressell | Grn | Grn 54% Ref 21% Lab 18% | 0.0% |
| Rye & Eastern Rother | Ref | Ref 30% Con 24% Grn 20% | 51.0% |
| St. Helens & Silverhill | Grn | Grn 29% Ref 29% Lab 19% | 0.0% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hastings and Rye at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hastings and Rye at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Amber Rudd | 37.1% | 41.1% | 15.7% | 1,993 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Amber Rudd | 35.1% | 44.5% | 3.2% | 4,796 | 67.8%+3.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Amber Rudd | 46.2% | 46.9% | 3.4% | 346 | 69.9%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Sally-Ann Hart 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.4% | 49.1% | 7.4% | 3,532 | 69.5%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Helena Dollimore | 41.6% | 22.8% | 5.6% | 8,653 | 60.6%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hastings and Rye
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hastings and Rye. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 26.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.0vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 29.8vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 24.0vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.4vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate28.7 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.7vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.5 / 24.2vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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