Constituency profile

Weston-Super-Mare

South West · County constituency · North Somerset borough

Dan Aldridge MP
Sitting MP

Dan Aldridge

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, North Somerset council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
57.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.3pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +4.1pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Weston-Super-Mare constituency

Weston-Super-Mare is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Dan Aldridge (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 28.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,409 votes on a 59.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.5% and Labour on 29.4%, a margin of 4.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Weston-Super-Mare? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
27.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
64.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
-
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Weston-Super-Mare vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 4,409 votes (10.4pp) · turnout 59.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Weston-Super-Mare

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Weston-Super-Mare within North Somerset

Weston-Super-Mare sits entirely within North Somerset Council. North Somerset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Somerset
63 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Hutton & LockingConservative 36.7%vs Labour 30.5%2023 Independent 32.3%vs Conservative 28.2%-36.6%
Weston-super-Mare CentralLabour 36.8%vs Conservative 23.9%2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 22.6%-24.8%
Weston-super-Mare HillsideLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 25.2%2023 Lib Dem 70.0%vs Labour 16.1%-26.3%
Weston-super-Mare KewstokeConservative 35.7%vs Labour 32.9%2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Lib Dem 37.7%-30.5%
Weston-super-Mare Mid WorleLabour 38.1%vs Conservative 27.9%2023 Lib Dem 37.3%vs Labour 33.0%-28.0%
Weston-super-Mare MiltonLabour 45.7%vs Conservative 24.8%2023 Labour 58.0%vs Conservative 28.7%-27.8%
Weston-super-Mare North WorleLabour 35.0%vs Conservative 31.9%2023 Conservative 47.9%vs Labour 26.4%-26.6%
Weston-super-Mare SouthLabour 45.9%vs Reform 20.4%2023 Labour 69.4%vs Conservative 15.8%-17.0%
Weston-super-Mare South WorleLabour 38.9%vs Conservative 28.4%2023 Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 37.5%-24.0%
Weston-super-Mare UphillLabour 40.0%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 32.0%-60.8%
Weston-super-Mare WinterstokeLabour 44.4%vs Conservative 22.0%2023 Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 20.5%-33.7%
Wick St Lawrence & St GeorgesLabour 37.1%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Independent 41.5%vs Conservative 23.5%-26.1%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Weston-Super-Mare at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Weston-Super-Mare at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdJohn Penrose10.9%44.3%39.2%2.7% UKIP-2.9%2,69167.2%
2015Con holdJohn Penrose18.3%48.0%10.4%17.8% UKIP4.9%0.6%15,60965.4%-1.8
2017Con holdJohn Penrose32.7%53.1%9.2%3.4% UKIP1.6%-11,54468.7%+3.3
2019notionalConservative winnerJohn Penrose 2019 MP, pre-review boundary28.1%57.1%11.7%-3.0%0.1%13,31064.9%-3.8
2024Lab gain from ConDaniel Aldridge38.5%28.1%8.9%18.2% Ref6.3%-4,40959.4%-5.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Weston-Super-Mare

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Weston-Super-Mare. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.