Poole
South West · Borough constituency · Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole borough
About the Poole constituency
Poole is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Neil Duncan-Jordan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 31.8% to 31.8% for Labour, a majority of 18 votes on a 61.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.9% and the Conservatives on 27.1%, a margin of 4.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Poole? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Poole vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Poole
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Poole within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Poole sits entirely within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council. Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | Canford Cliffs | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canford Cliffs | Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 59.1%vs Lib Dem 19.7% | - | 41.3% |
| Creekmoor | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Others 39.2%vs Lib Dem 34.8% | - | 34.4% |
| Hamworthy | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Others 40.2%vs Conservative 25.7% | - | 36.6% |
| Newtown & Heatherlands | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.3%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 30.6% |
| Oakdale | Labour 30.9%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Others 58.6%vs Conservative 18.9% | - | 31.4% |
| Parkstone | Labour 31.1%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 37.7% |
| Penn Hill | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.6%vs Conservative 28.0% | - | 38.8% |
| Poole Town | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Others 44.2%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 36.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Poole at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Poole at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Robert Syms | 12.7% | 47.5% | 31.6% | 7,541 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Robert Syms | 12.9% | 50.1% | 11.8% | 15,789 | 65.3%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Robert Syms | 29.4% | 57.9% | 8.9% | 14,209 | 67.6%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Syms 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 20.7% | 58.8% | 15.3% | 18,608 | 67.6%+0.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Neil Duncan-Jordan | 31.8% | 31.8% | 12.4% | 18 | 61.4%-6.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Poole
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Poole. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↑Leave57.4 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.0 / 65.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.0 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.4 / 57.5vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.0 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Leave57.4 / 57.2vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 25.9vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.1vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.4 / 58.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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