Richmond and Northallerton
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Yorkshire borough
About the Richmond and Northallerton constituency
Richmond and Northallerton is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Rishi Sunak (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 47.5% to 22.4% for Labour, a majority of 12,185 votes on a 65.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 47.0% and Reform UK on 24.1%, a margin of 22.8 points.
Who lives in Richmond and Northallerton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Richmond and Northallerton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Richmond and Northallerton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Richmond and Northallerton within North Yorkshire
Richmond and Northallerton sits entirely within North Yorkshire Council. North Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Yorkshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catterick Village & Brompton-on-Swale | Conservative 51.3%vs Labour 17.6% | 2022 Conservative 56.5%vs Independent 31.0% | - | - |
| Great Ayton | Conservative 51.0%vs Labour 20.7% | 2022 Conservative 59.8%vs Labour 22.0% | - | 30.1% |
| Hipswell & Colburn | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 28.9% | 2022 Green 39.4%vs Conservative 38.8% | - | - |
| Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley | Conservative 51.5%vs Labour 16.5% | 2022 Conservative 39.5%vs Independent 28.5% | - | - |
| Leyburn & Middleham | Conservative 50.2%vs Labour 18.8% | 2022 Conservative 47.0%vs Independent 38.3% | - | - |
| Morton-on-Swale & Appleton Wiske | Conservative 59.9%vs Labour 18.6% | 2022 Conservative 66.5%vs Labour 17.2% | - | - |
| North Richmondshire | Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 22.3% | 2022 Conservative 53.9%vs Lib Dem 46.1% | - | - |
| Northallerton North & Brompton | Conservative 43.9%vs Labour 25.3% | 2022 Conservative 40.2%vs Independent 32.8% | - | - |
| Northallerton South | Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 24.8% | 2022 Conservative 55.4%vs Labour 32.2% | - | - |
| Richmond | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 27.5% | 2022 Independent 44.6%vs Lib Dem 39.6% | - | 37.9% |
| Romanby | Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 22.4% | 2022 Conservative 56.4%vs Labour 22.0% | - | - |
| Scotton & Lower Wensleydale | Conservative 47.7%vs Labour 24.7% | 2022 Conservative 45.5%vs Independent 34.7% | - | - |
| Stokesley | Conservative 47.5%vs Labour 20.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 36.7% | - | 35.8% |
| Upper Dales | Conservative 50.0%vs Labour 22.1% | 2022 Conservative 59.5%vs Lib Dem 25.2% | - | 40.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Richmond and Northallerton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Richmond and Northallerton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | William Hague Richmond (Yorks) MP | 15.3% | 62.8% | 19.1% | 23,336 | 66.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Rishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP | 13.2% | 51.4% | 6.4% | 19,550 | 68.3%+2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Rishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP | 23.4% | 63.9% | 5.9% | 23,108 | 70.5%+2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP, pre-review boundary | 16.4% | 63.3% | 12.5% | 24,331 | 71.3% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Rishi Sunak | 22.4% | 47.5% | 8.9% | 12,185 | 65.7%-5.6 |
Richmond and Northallerton was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Richmond (Yorks) (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Richmond and Northallerton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Richmond and Northallerton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 32.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 22.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 66.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 26.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 27.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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