Constituency profile

Richmond and Northallerton

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Yorkshire borough

Rishi Sunak MP
Sitting MP

Rishi Sunak

Conservative

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, North Yorkshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
55.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +3.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +22.8pp
vs Reform UK 24.1%
NorthernLeave-leaning

About the Richmond and Northallerton constituency

Richmond and Northallerton is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Rishi Sunak (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 47.5% to 22.4% for Labour, a majority of 12,185 votes on a 65.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 47.0% and Reform UK on 24.1%, a margin of 22.8 points.

Who lives in Richmond and Northallerton? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
55.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
35.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
49.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.0%
UK average ~28%

How did Richmond and Northallerton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 12,185 votes (25.1pp) · turnout 65.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Richmond and Northallerton

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Richmond and Northallerton within North Yorkshire

Richmond and Northallerton sits entirely within North Yorkshire Council. North Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Yorkshire
62 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Catterick Village & Brompton-on-SwaleConservative 51.3%vs Labour 17.6%2022 Conservative 56.5%vs Independent 31.0%--
Great AytonConservative 51.0%vs Labour 20.7%2022 Conservative 59.8%vs Labour 22.0%-30.1%
Hipswell & ColburnConservative 38.5%vs Labour 28.9%2022 Green 39.4%vs Conservative 38.8%--
Hutton Rudby & OsmotherleyConservative 51.5%vs Labour 16.5%2022 Conservative 39.5%vs Independent 28.5%--
Leyburn & MiddlehamConservative 50.2%vs Labour 18.8%2022 Conservative 47.0%vs Independent 38.3%--
Morton-on-Swale & Appleton WiskeConservative 59.9%vs Labour 18.6%2022 Conservative 66.5%vs Labour 17.2%--
North RichmondshireConservative 46.6%vs Labour 22.3%2022 Conservative 53.9%vs Lib Dem 46.1%--
Northallerton North & BromptonConservative 43.9%vs Labour 25.3%2022 Conservative 40.2%vs Independent 32.8%--
Northallerton SouthConservative 44.2%vs Labour 24.8%2022 Conservative 55.4%vs Labour 32.2%--
RichmondConservative 37.5%vs Labour 27.5%2022 Independent 44.6%vs Lib Dem 39.6%-37.9%
RomanbyConservative 49.5%vs Labour 22.4%2022 Conservative 56.4%vs Labour 22.0%--
Scotton & Lower WensleydaleConservative 47.7%vs Labour 24.7%2022 Conservative 45.5%vs Independent 34.7%--
StokesleyConservative 47.5%vs Labour 20.4%2022 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 36.7%-35.8%
Upper DalesConservative 50.0%vs Labour 22.1%2022 Conservative 59.5%vs Lib Dem 25.2%-40.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Richmond and Northallerton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Richmond and Northallerton at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdWilliam Hague Richmond (Yorks) MP15.3%62.8%19.1%-2.8%-23,33666.3%
2015predecessorCon holdRishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP13.2%51.4%6.4%15.2% UKIP4.3%9.6%19,55068.3%+2.0
2017predecessorCon holdRishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP23.4%63.9%5.9%-3.1%3.7%23,10870.5%+2.2
2019notionalConservative winnerRishi Sunak Richmond (Yorks) MP, pre-review boundary16.4%63.3%12.5%-3.8%4.0%24,33171.3%
2024Con holdRishi Sunak22.4%47.5%8.9%14.7% Ref4.2%2.2%12,18565.7%-5.6

Richmond and Northallerton was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Richmond (Yorks) (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Richmond and Northallerton

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Richmond and Northallerton. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.