Chichester
South East · County constituency
About the Chichester constituency
Chichester is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Jess Brown-Fuller (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 49.2% to 25.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,172 votes on a 66.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 46.3% and Reform UK on 25.7%, a margin of 20.6 points.
Who lives in Chichester? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chichester vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chichester
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chichester within Chichester and Arun
Chichester crosses council boundaries: Chichester (82%), Arun (18%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Chichester | 82% |
| Arun | 18% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bourne | LD | LD 49% Ref 25% Con 16% | 47.6% |
| Chichester East | LD | LD 45% Ref 27% Con 15% | 41.4% |
| Chichester North | LD | LD 45% Con 27% Ref 18% | 51.0% |
| Chichester South | LD | LD 45% Ref 22% Grn 17% | 48.1% |
| Chichester West | LD | LD 57% Ref 19% Con 15% | 51.1% |
| Selsey | Local Alliance | Local Alliance 40% Ref 37% Con 11% | 45.4% |
| The Witterings | LD | LD 40% Ref 29% Con 25% | 50.6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bersted | Lib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Conservative 47.2%vs Lib Dem 39.9% | - | 29.6% |
| Chichester Central | Lib Dem 50.0%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 40.9% |
| Chichester East | Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.0%vs Labour 29.2% | - | 33.4% |
| Chichester North | Lib Dem 53.0%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 46.4% |
| Chichester South | Lib Dem 42.3%vs Conservative 22.2% | 2023 Green 72.4%vs Lib Dem 9.8% | - | 35.2% |
| Chichester West | Lib Dem 58.0%vs Conservative 21.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.7%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 47.7% |
| Goodwood | Conservative 34.4%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | 2023 Conservative 47.1%vs Lib Dem 29.6% | - | 33.5% |
| Harbour Villages | Lib Dem 58.5%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.6%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 55.7% |
| Lavant | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 44.1% | - | 40.4% |
| North Mundham & Tangmere | Lib Dem 49.6%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.4%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | 31.1% |
| Pagham | Lib Dem 43.4%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Independent 71.0%vs Conservative 17.6% | - | 30.4% |
| Selsey South | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 34.5% | 2023 Others 50.8%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 35.6% |
| Sidlesham with Selsey North | Lib Dem 37.2%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Others 43.0%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 35.8% |
| Southbourne | Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 20.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.5%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 37.5% |
| The Witterings | Lib Dem 48.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 40.2% | - | 42.4% |
| Westbourne | Lib Dem 45.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 45.3%vs Lib Dem 43.7% | - | 46.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chichester at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chichester at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrew Tyrie | 10.5% | 55.3% | 27.4% | 15,877 | 69.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Andrew Tyrie | 12.1% | 57.7% | 8.5% | 24,413 | 68.5%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Gillian Keegan | 22.4% | 60.1% | 11.3% | 22,621 | 70.5%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gillian Keegan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.4% | 58.8% | 20.3% | 19,622 | 66.5%-4.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Jess Brown-Fuller | 6.1% | 25.7% | 49.2% | 12,172 | 66.3%-0.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chichester
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chichester. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+31.4 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 24.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.4 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.4 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.4 / 30.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.4 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 68.2vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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