Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Wales · County constituency
About the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency
Dwyfor Meirionnydd is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Liz Saville Roberts (Plaid Cymru), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Plaid Cymru won with 53.9% to 14.6% for Labour, a majority of 15,876 votes on a 55.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 59.5% and Reform UK on 16.6%, a margin of 42.9 points.
Who lives in Dwyfor Meirionnydd? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dwyfor Meirionnydd vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Dwyfor Meirionnydd voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Gwynedd Maldwyn. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwynedd Maldwyn | 100% | Plaid Cymru 44.2% | Reform UK 27.7% | 4 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd within Gwynedd and Denbighshire
Dwyfor Meirionnydd crosses council boundaries: Gwynedd (95%), Denbighshire (5%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Gwynedd | 95% |
| Denbighshire | 5% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Llanrug | Ind GAIN from PC | Other 58% PC 38% Ref 2% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Bethel a'r Felinheli | PC HOLD | PC 59% Other 33% Ref 7% |
| 21 Aug 2025 | Abermaw | Ind HOLD | Other 78% Ref 18% Con 3% |
| 10 Apr 2025 | Teigl | PC HOLD | — |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Llanberis | PC HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abererch | Plaid Cymru 48.2%vs Labour 16.9% | 2022 Independent 83.4%vs Plaid Cymru 16.6% | - | - |
| Abermaw | Plaid Cymru 47.3%vs Labour 18.0% | 2022 Independent 72.0%vs Plaid Cymru 19.5% | - | - |
| Arthog a Llangelynnin | Plaid Cymru 45.8%vs Labour 16.1% | 2022 Independent 73.1%vs Labour 26.9% | - | - |
| Bethel a'r Felinheli | Plaid Cymru 66.5%vs Labour 11.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 91.0%vs Lib Dem 9.1% | - | - |
| Bowydd a'r Rhiw | Plaid Cymru 58.1%vs Labour 14.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 72.3%vs Independent 27.7% | - | - |
| Brithdir and Llanfachreth/Ganllwyd/Llanelltyd | Plaid Cymru 64.5%vs Conservative 10.7% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Bro Dysynni | Plaid Cymru 47.8%vs Conservative 14.7% | 2022 Independent 85.9%vs Labour 14.1% | - | - |
| Cadnant | Plaid Cymru 46.3%vs Reform 16.9% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 38.2%vs Labour 37.6% | - | - |
| Canol Tref Caernarfon | Plaid Cymru 45.5%vs Reform 17.2% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Corris a Mawddwy | Plaid Cymru 45.6%vs Reform 16.8% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Criccieth | Plaid Cymru 56.3%vs Conservative 12.5% | 2022 Independent 47.3%vs Plaid Cymru 41.5% | - | - |
| Cwm-y-glo | Plaid Cymru 46.0%vs Reform 16.5% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 67.7%vs Labour 32.3% | - | - |
| De Dolgellau | Plaid Cymru 59.0%vs Reform 11.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 55.7%vs Independent 37.3% | - | - |
| De Pwllheli | Plaid Cymru 48.8%vs Labour 15.9% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Deiniolen | Plaid Cymru 45.6%vs Reform 17.0% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Diffwys a Maenofferen | Plaid Cymru 45.5%vs Reform 16.9% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Dolbenmaen | Plaid Cymru 46.0%vs Reform 16.7% | 2017 Lib Dem 80.7%vs Plaid Cymru 19.3% | - | - |
| Dwyrain Porthmadog | Plaid Cymru 48.5%vs Labour 15.8% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Dyffryn Ardudwy | Plaid Cymru 48.4%vs Reform 15.5% | 2017 Independent 49.9%vs Plaid Cymru 44.1% | - | - |
| Edeirnion | Plaid Cymru 60.6%vs Labour 14.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 71.3%vs Labour 16.9% | - | 47.7% |
| Efailnewydd a Buan | Plaid Cymru 48.6%vs Reform 15.4% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Glaslyn | Plaid Cymru 59.4%vs Labour 13.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 56.5%vs Independent 43.5% | - | - |
| Gogledd Dolgellau | Plaid Cymru 60.5%vs Labour 13.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 60.8%vs Independent 39.2% | - | - |
| Gogledd Pwllheli | Plaid Cymru 54.6%vs Labour 15.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 55.2%vs Independent 44.8% | - | - |
| Gorllewin Porthmadog | Plaid Cymru 55.9%vs Conservative 13.0% | 2022 Independent 45.3%vs Plaid Cymru 41.4% | - | - |
| Harlech a Llanbedr | Plaid Cymru 45.7%vs Reform 16.6% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Hendre | Plaid Cymru 52.6%vs Labour 19.2% | 2022 Labour 50.6%vs Plaid Cymru 49.4% | - | - |
| Llanbedrog gyda Mynytho | Plaid Cymru 44.8%vs Labour 19.2% | 2022 Independent 95.3%vs Conservative 4.7% | - | - |
| Llanberis | Plaid Cymru 63.0%vs Labour 12.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 59.2%vs Independent 40.8% | - | - |
| Llandderfel | Plaid Cymru 48.4%vs Reform 15.6% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llanllyfni | Plaid Cymru 54.8%vs Labour 16.1% | 2022 Independent 48.9%vs Plaid Cymru 42.9% | - | - |
| Llanrug | Plaid Cymru 48.7%vs Labour 15.5% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llanuwchllyn | Plaid Cymru 48.1%vs Reform 15.7% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llanwnda | Plaid Cymru 62.8%vs Labour 12.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 58.8%vs Independent 41.2% | - | - |
| Llanystumdwy | Plaid Cymru 66.4%vs Labour 11.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 71.1%vs Independent 28.9% | - | - |
| Menai | Plaid Cymru 48.5%vs Reform 15.4% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Morfa Nefyn a Thudweiliog | Plaid Cymru 66.8%vs Labour 11.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 76.0%vs Independent 24.1% | - | - |
| Morfa Tywyn | Plaid Cymru 46.7%vs Labour 17.1% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Nefyn | Plaid Cymru 45.9%vs Reform 16.9% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Peblig | Plaid Cymru 58.5%vs Labour 14.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 65.8%vs Independent 34.2% | - | - |
| Pen-y-groes | Plaid Cymru 45.7%vs Reform 17.0% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Penisa'r-waun | Plaid Cymru 46.0%vs Reform 16.6% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Penrhyndeudraeth | Plaid Cymru 48.6%vs Reform 15.6% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Teigl | Plaid Cymru 45.7%vs Reform 16.8% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Trawsfynydd | Plaid Cymru 45.9%vs Reform 16.7% | 2017 Independent 67.3%vs Plaid Cymru 32.7% | - | - |
| Waunfawr | Plaid Cymru 45.8%vs Reform 16.6% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 55.0%vs Independent 45.0% | - | - |
| Y Bala | Plaid Cymru 66.3%vs Labour 12.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 87.5%vs Green 12.5% | - | - |
| Y Bontnewydd | Plaid Cymru 68.5%vs Labour 10.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 79.7%vs Independent 20.3% | - | - |
| Y Groeslon | Plaid Cymru 63.7%vs Labour 12.5% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 55.6%vs Independent 44.4% | - | - |
| Yr Eifl | Plaid Cymru 49.8%vs Labour 18.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 34.8%vs Labour 34.5% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dwyfor Meirionnydd at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dwyfor Meirionnydd at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | PC hold | Elfyn Llwyd | 13.9% | 22.3% | 12.2% | 6,367 | 63.7% |
| 2015 | PC hold | Liz Saville-Roberts | 13.5% | 22.7% | 4.0% | 5,261 | 65.1%+1.4 |
| 2017 | PC hold | Liz Saville Roberts | 20.7% | 29.1% | 3.1% | 4,850 | 67.9%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Plaid Cymru winner | Liz Saville Roberts 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.8% | 26.2% | 0.2% | 9,880 | 69.6%+1.7 |
| 2024 | PC hold | Liz Saville Roberts | 14.6% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 15,876 | 55.3%-14.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dwyfor Meirionnydd. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave47.4 / 47.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied68.2 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Leave47.4 / 48.7vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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