Constituency profile

Shrewsbury

West Midlands · County constituency · Shropshire borough

Julia Buckley MP
Sitting MP

Julia Buckley

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency, Shropshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
52.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +1.0pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +14.5pp
vs Reform UK 24.2%
MidlandsBrexit-marginal

About the Shrewsbury constituency

Shrewsbury is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Julia Buckley (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.5% to 22.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,355 votes on a 67.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.8% and Reform UK on 24.2%, a margin of 14.5 points.

Who lives in Shrewsbury? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
52.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
34.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
66.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.0%
UK average ~28%

How did Shrewsbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 11,355 votes (22.1pp) · turnout 67.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Shrewsbury

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Shrewsbury within Shropshire

Shrewsbury sits entirely within Shropshire Council. Shropshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Shropshire
61 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AbbeyLabour 40.0%vs Conservative 22.1%2021 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 29.4%-48.5%
BagleyLabour 40.4%vs Conservative 21.3%2021 Conservative 28.8%vs Lib Dem 27.6%-38.0%
BattlefieldLabour 41.3%vs Conservative 22.6%2021 Conservative 60.4%vs Labour 31.4%-27.6%
Bayston Hill, Column and SuttonLabour 52.1%vs Conservative 23.1%2021 Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 33.9%-46.1%
Belle VueLabour 55.3%vs Conservative 16.7%2021 Labour 65.1%vs Conservative 20.1%-44.8%
BowbrookLabour 38.9%vs Conservative 22.0%2021 Lib Dem 62.2%vs Conservative 20.0%-48.2%
Castlefields and DitheringtonLabour 61.6%vs Conservative 14.1%2021 Labour 65.9%vs Conservative 17.5%-31.9%
CopthorneLabour 37.1%vs Conservative 28.4%2021 Lib Dem 59.0%vs Conservative 28.2%-52.0%
HarlescottLabour 47.9%vs Conservative 20.5%2021 Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 41.6%-24.8%
LongdenLabour 33.9%vs Conservative 25.3%2021 Lib Dem 67.6%vs Conservative 25.4%-47.9%
LotonConservative 35.3%vs Labour 33.5%2021 Conservative 75.0%vs Labour 11.7%-45.3%
MeoleLabour 43.0%vs Conservative 24.1%2021 Lib Dem 35.6%vs Conservative 31.1%-45.9%
MonkmoorLabour 49.8%vs Conservative 16.2%2021 Labour 43.4%vs Lib Dem 34.2%-33.4%
PorthillLabour 41.3%vs Conservative 20.1%2021 Green 56.9%vs Lib Dem 18.1%-53.9%
Quarry and Coton HillLabour 42.5%vs Conservative 17.9%2021 Lib Dem 40.9%vs Conservative 26.6%-40.8%
RadbrookLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 23.1%2021 Green 51.8%vs Conservative 34.3%-47.4%
Rea ValleyLabour 34.1%vs Conservative 31.3%2021 Conservative 71.3%vs Labour 11.3%-38.5%
SundorneLabour 56.2%vs Reform 15.1%2021 Labour 73.0%vs Conservative 20.0%-26.7%
TernLabour 35.2%vs Conservative 30.5%2021 Conservative 56.8%vs Labour 21.4%-39.9%
UnderdaleLabour 45.3%vs Conservative 17.1%2021 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Labour 31.8%-36.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Shrewsbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Shrewsbury at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdDaniel Kawczynski Shrewsbury and Atcham MP20.6%43.9%29.0%3.1% UKIP1.1%2.4%7,94470.3%
2015predecessorCon holdDaniel Kawczynski Shrewsbury and Atcham MP27.8%45.5%7.9%14.4% UKIP4.2%0.2%9,56570.8%+0.5
2017predecessorCon holdDaniel Kawczynski Shrewsbury and Atcham MP38.6%50.0%7.3%2.3% UKIP1.8%-6,62773.6%+2.8
2019notionalConservative winnerDaniel Kawczynski Shrewsbury and Atcham MP, pre-review boundary35.5%49.4%10.8%-3.2%1.1%7,17568.6%
2024Lab gain from ConJulia Buckley44.5%22.5%13.0%14.6% Ref4.6%0.8%11,35567.3%-1.3

Shrewsbury was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Shrewsbury and Atcham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Shrewsbury

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Shrewsbury. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.