Calder Valley
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · Calderdale borough
About the Calder Valley constituency
Calder Valley is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Josh Fenton-Glynn (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.4% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,991 votes on a 64.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 30.4% and the Conservatives on 26.9%, a margin of 3.4 points.
Who lives in Calder Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Calder Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Calder Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Calder Valley within Calderdale
Calder Valley sits entirely within Calderdale Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Calderdale | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighouse | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.6%vs Conservative 25.5% | Labour→Reform +24.0pp | - |
| Calder | Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 19.4% | 2024 Labour 67.7%vs Green 14.4% | - | 48.1% |
| Elland | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 23.9% | May 2026 Reform 50.7%vs Green 15.2% | Labour→Reform +34.1pp | - |
| Greetland and Stainland | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Hipperholme and Lightcliffe | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Reform 38.0%vs Conservative 26.5% | Labour→Reform +22.5pp | - |
| Luddendenfoot | Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 24.9% | May 2026 Labour 36.5%vs Reform 32.0% | Labour share -13.1pp | - |
| Rastrick | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Conservative 23.9% | Labour→Reform +23.6pp | - |
| Ryburn | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Conservative 17.2% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
| Todmorden | Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 18.9% | 2024 Labour 61.9%vs Conservative 16.9% | - | 34.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Calder Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Calder Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Craig Whittaker | 27.0% | 39.4% | 25.2% | 6,431 | 67.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Craig Whittaker | 35.4% | 43.6% | 5.0% | 4,427 | 68.9%+1.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Craig Whittaker | 45.1% | 46.1% | 3.4% | 609 | 73.4%+4.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Craig Whittaker 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.3% | 51.4% | 5.1% | 5,107 | 74.3%+0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Josh Fenton-Glynn | 44.4% | 26.3% | 5.2% | 8,991 | 64.1%-10.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Calder Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Calder Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 14.4vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 13.2vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.8vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.