Tewkesbury
South West · County constituency
About the Tewkesbury constituency
Tewkesbury is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Cameron Thomas (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 42.7% to 29.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,262 votes on a 66.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.4% and Reform UK on 25.9%, a margin of 9.4 points.
Who lives in Tewkesbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tewkesbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tewkesbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tewkesbury within Tewkesbury and Cheltenham and 1 other council
Tewkesbury crosses council boundaries: Tewkesbury (62%), Cheltenham (21%), Gloucester (17%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tewkesbury | 62% | — |
| Cheltenham | 21% | View projection › |
| Gloucester | 17% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Northway | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 41% LD 31% Con 13% |
| 1 May 2025 | Innsworth | LD HOLD | LD 47% Ref 42% Lab 6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleeve Grange | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 36.0% | - | 33.1% |
| Cleeve Hill | Lib Dem 42.6%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.3%vs Conservative 44.7% | - | 44.1% |
| Cleeve St Michael's | Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | 34.1% |
| Cleeve West | Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.8%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 38.8% |
| Elmbridge | Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 70.7%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | - |
| Innsworth | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 30.0% |
| Isbourne | Lib Dem 40.7%vs Conservative 37.1% | 2023 Conservative 37.7%vs Independent 32.5% | - | 53.5% |
| Longlevens | Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 57.5%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | - |
| Northway | Lib Dem 33.7%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 32.2%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | - | 31.4% |
| Pittville | Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Green 20.4% | Lib Dem share -2.5pp | 50.9% |
| Prestbury | Lib Dem 37.3%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Green 41.2%vs Reform 25.8% | Lib Dem→Green +28.3pp | 53.8% |
| Severn Vale North | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.1%vs Lib Dem 39.4% | - | 39.3% |
| Severn Vale South | Conservative 37.6%vs Lib Dem 36.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.1%vs Lib Dem 24.9% | - | 40.1% |
| Springbank | Lib Dem 51.1%vs Conservative 21.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Reform 31.2% | Lib Dem share -6.0pp | 35.0% |
| Swindon Village | Lib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 24.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.8%vs Reform 28.8% | Lib Dem share -10.8pp | 44.2% |
| Tewkesbury East | Lib Dem 35.7%vs Conservative 33.9% | 2023 Green 63.7%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 32.6% |
| Tewkesbury North & Twyning | Lib Dem 35.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2023 Others 73.9%vs Conservative 11.4% | - | 42.3% |
| Tewkesbury South | Lib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Green 76.8%vs Conservative 16.8% | - | 30.7% |
| Winchcombe | Lib Dem 36.9%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 15.5% | - | 55.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tewkesbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tewkesbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Laurence Robertson | 11.6% | 47.2% | 35.5% | 6,310 | 70.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Laurence Robertson | 14.8% | 54.5% | 13.8% | 21,972 | 70.1%-0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Laurence Robertson | 21.8% | 60.0% | 13.5% | 22,574 | 72.5%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Laurence Robertson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.7% | 58.1% | 22.0% | 19,443 | 74.4%+1.9 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Cameron Thomas | 8.9% | 29.8% | 42.7% | 6,262 | 66.1%-8.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Tewkesbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tewkesbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.5 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 25.7vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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