Sevenoaks
South East · County constituency
About the Sevenoaks constituency
Sevenoaks is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Laura Trott (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.7% to 25.8% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 5,440 votes on a 67.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.9% and Reform UK on 30.3%, a margin of 3.6 points.
Who lives in Sevenoaks? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sevenoaks vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sevenoaks
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sevenoaks within Sevenoaks and Dartford
Sevenoaks crosses council boundaries: Sevenoaks (92%), Dartford (8%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Sevenoaks | 92% |
| Dartford | 8% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | Halstead Knockholt & Badgers Mount | Con HOLD | Con 44% Ref 30% LD 21% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Hextable | Con GAIN from Ind | Con 39% Ref 26% LD 24% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge | Conservative 37.7%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.3%vs Conservative 49.7% | - | 37.2% |
| Crockenhill and Well Hill | Conservative 33.0%vs Reform 24.2% | 2023 Independent 86.7%vs Conservative 13.3% | - | 37.0% |
| Dunton Green and Riverhead | Conservative 35.4%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 30.3% | - | 38.3% |
| Eynsford | Conservative 34.8%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2023 Green 63.7%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 40.3% |
| Farningham, Horton Kirby and South Darenth | Conservative 36.4%vs Lib Dem 25.2% | 2023 Conservative 62.1%vs Lib Dem 20.3% | - | 32.6% |
| Fawkham and West Kingsdown | Conservative 39.8%vs Lib Dem 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 69.0%vs Green 17.4% | - | 31.4% |
| Halstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount | Conservative 41.3%vs Lib Dem 24.0% | 2023 Conservative 66.3%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | 34.8% |
| Hextable | Conservative 28.6%vs Lib Dem 23.6% | 2023 Independent 81.7%vs Conservative 18.3% | - | 24.1% |
| Kemsing | Conservative 39.9%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 57.2%vs Green 22.2% | - | 47.8% |
| Otford and Shoreham | Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | 2023 Conservative 55.5%vs Lib Dem 32.9% | - | 40.8% |
| Seal and Weald | Conservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 27.4% | 2023 Conservative 55.3%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | - | 46.3% |
| Sevenoaks Eastern | Lib Dem 37.5%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 80.0%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | 38.9% |
| Sevenoaks Kippington | Conservative 36.0%vs Lib Dem 28.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 45.3% | - | 44.6% |
| Sevenoaks Northern | Lib Dem 34.0%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.0%vs Conservative 30.2% | - | 37.7% |
| Sevenoaks Town and St John's | Conservative 34.4%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.5%vs Conservative 43.5% | - | 42.6% |
| Swanley Christchurch and Swanley Village | Conservative 37.6%vs Lib Dem 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 63.9%vs Labour 28.6% | - | 31.9% |
| Swanley St Mary's | Conservative 33.9%vs Lib Dem 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 63.4%vs Labour 36.6% | - | 19.7% |
| Swanley White Oak | Conservative 33.0%vs Reform 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 60.0%vs Labour 27.2% | - | 21.4% |
| Westerham and Crockham Hill | Conservative 37.1%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 57.5%vs Lib Dem 28.8% | - | 34.7% |
| Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley | Conservative 47.3%vs Lib Dem 22.3% | 2023 Conservative 69.2%vs Labour 24.6% | - | 33.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sevenoaks at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sevenoaks at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Michael Fallon | 13.2% | 56.8% | 21.4% | 17,515 | 71.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Michael Fallon | 12.9% | 56.9% | 7.9% | 19,561 | 69.7%-1.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Fallon | 20.9% | 63.7% | 8.4% | 21,917 | 71.6%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Laura Trott 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.5% | 61.7% | 19.4% | 21,793 | 69.9%-1.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Laura Trott | 13.6% | 36.7% | 25.8% | 5,440 | 67.7%-2.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sevenoaks
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sevenoaks. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 24.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.6 / 25.7vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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