Tonbridge
South East · County constituency
About the Tonbridge constituency
Tonbridge is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Tom Tugendhat (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.8% to 18.6% for Labour, a majority of 11,166 votes on a 69.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.0% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 4.9 points.
Who lives in Tonbridge? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tonbridge vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tonbridge
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tonbridge within Tonbridge and Malling and Sevenoaks
Tonbridge crosses council boundaries: Tonbridge and Malling (69%), Sevenoaks (31%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Tonbridge and Malling | 69% |
| Sevenoaks | 31% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Judd | Grn HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash and New Ash Green | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 20.9% | 2023 Green 65.4%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | 33.2% |
| Birling, Leybourne & Ryarsh | Conservative 37.3%vs Lib Dem 18.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.9%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 35.8% |
| Borough Green & Platt | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Others 79.2%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 34.0% |
| Bourne | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Green 46.1%vs Conservative 42.9% | - | 44.6% |
| Cage Green & Angel | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Green 61.9%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 41.9% |
| Cowden and Hever | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 18.8% | 2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Lib Dem 26.2% | - | 38.6% |
| East and West Peckham, Mereworth & Wateringbury | Conservative 52.3%vs Labour 14.1% | 2023 Conservative 65.9%vs Green 19.4% | - | 43.8% |
| Edenbridge North and East | Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 19.3% | 2023 Conservative 68.8%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | - | 29.9% |
| Edenbridge South and West | Conservative 36.7%vs Reform 19.3% | 2023 Conservative 53.6%vs Lib Dem 46.4% | - | 28.0% |
| Hartley and Hodsoll Street | Conservative 40.1%vs Reform 19.7% | 2023 Conservative 73.6%vs Green 26.4% | - | 30.5% |
| Higham | Conservative 44.5%vs Labour 17.9% | 2023 Green 53.2%vs Conservative 46.8% | - | 46.1% |
| Hildenborough | Conservative 48.9%vs Green 15.5% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Green 26.2% | - | 58.9% |
| Judd | Conservative 35.1%vs Green 23.6% | 2023 Green 79.4%vs Conservative 16.9% | - | 45.7% |
| Leigh and Chiddingstone Causeway | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 17.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 37.8% |
| Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone | Conservative 39.3%vs Reform 17.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 46.5% | - | 42.0% |
| Pilgrims with Ightham | Conservative 47.6%vs Labour 17.9% | 2023 Conservative 53.3%vs Others 46.7% | - | 41.3% |
| Trench | Conservative 43.0%vs Labour 17.6% | 2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Green 42.6% | - | 41.4% |
| Vauxhall | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 18.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.4%vs Conservative 27.0% | - | 44.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tonbridge at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tonbridge at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | John Stanley Tonbridge and Malling MP | 12.6% | 57.9% | 22.5% | 18,178 | 71.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Tom Tugendhat Tonbridge and Malling MP | 14.2% | 59.4% | 6.8% | 23,734 | 71.7%+0.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Tom Tugendhat Tonbridge and Malling MP | 22.3% | 63.6% | 6.7% | 23,508 | 73.5%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Thomas Tugendhat Tonbridge and Malling MP, pre-review boundary | 15.1% | 64.8% | 12.3% | 27,052 | 73.9% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Tom Tugendhat | 18.6% | 40.8% | 8.4% | 11,166 | 69.1%-4.8 |
Tonbridge was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Tonbridge and Malling (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Tonbridge
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tonbridge. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 26.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 26.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 26.3vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 16.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 25.8vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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