Stafford
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Stafford constituency
Stafford is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Leigh Ingham (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.3% to 30.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,595 votes on a 65.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.0% and the Conservatives on 28.8%, a margin of 2.2 points.
Who lives in Stafford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stafford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stafford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stafford within Stafford and Newcastle-under-Lyme
Stafford crosses council boundaries: Stafford (93%), Newcastle-under-Lyme (7%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Stafford | 93% | — |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 7% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | Manor | Lab HOLD | Lab 36% Ref 31% Con 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baswich | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 35.1% | 2023 Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 31.5% | - | 43.8% |
| Common | Labour 49.9%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 23.6% |
| Coton | Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Labour 64.0%vs Conservative 19.8% | - | 21.6% |
| Doxey & Castletown | Labour 38.0%vs Reform 23.9% | 2023 Green 56.1%vs Labour 18.3% | - | 29.0% |
| Eccleshall | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 59.0%vs Labour 30.9% | - | 34.2% |
| Forebridge | Labour 46.6%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Labour 56.1%vs Conservative 25.2% | - | 28.9% |
| Gnosall & Woodseaves | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 36.3% | 2023 Conservative 47.4%vs Green 44.3% | - | 38.4% |
| Highfields & Western Downs | Labour 43.8%vs Reform 23.0% | 2023 Labour 53.1%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 23.5% |
| Holmcroft | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Labour 43.2% | - | 33.9% |
| Littleworth | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 28.0% | - | 34.3% |
| Loggerheads | Conservative 38.4%vs Labour 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 45.1%vs Reform 33.7% | Conservative share +6.7pp | 47.7% |
| Maer & Whitmore | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 28.1% | May 2026 Conservative 50.1%vs Reform 38.1% | Conservative share +10.9pp | 50.0% |
| Manor | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2023 Labour 59.6%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 29.0% |
| Penkside | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2023 Labour 54.5%vs Conservative 28.4% | - | 23.5% |
| Rowley | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Green 41.3%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 41.3% |
| Seighford & Church Eaton | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 32.8% | 2023 Green 50.2%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 37.2% |
| Weeping Cross & Wildwood | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Others 35.2%vs Labour 34.8% | - | 38.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stafford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stafford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Jeremy Lefroy | 33.0% | 43.9% | 16.3% | 5,460 | 71.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jeremy Lefroy | 29.6% | 48.4% | 2.8% | 9,177 | 71.0%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jeremy Lefroy | 39.9% | 54.7% | 3.0% | 7,729 | 75.9%+4.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Theo Clarke 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 31.2% | 57.9% | 6.4% | 13,720 | 72.7%-3.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Leigh Ingham | 40.3% | 30.3% | 3.6% | 4,595 | 65.2%-7.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stafford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stafford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.5 / 57.0vs 53.2
- ↑Leave57.5 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 65.7vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.5 / 56.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.5 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave57.5 / 58.9vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.