Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
East of England · County constituency
About the Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket constituency
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Peter Prinsley (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 32.9% to 30.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,452 votes on a 64.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.5% and Labour on 25.6%, a margin of 6.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket within West Suffolk and Mid Suffolk
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket crosses council boundaries: West Suffolk (66%), Mid Suffolk (34%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Suffolk | 66% |
| Mid Suffolk | 34% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbeygate & Minden | Grn | Grn 32% Ref 23% Con 15% | 49.6% |
| Blackbourn | Con | Con 38% Ref 35% Grn 17% | 49.0% |
| Eastgate & Moreton Hall | Ref | Ref 28% LD 23% Con 21% | 43.4% |
| Hardwick | Con | Con 48% Ref 21% Grn 15% | 51.4% |
| St Olaves & Tollgate | Ref | Ref 32% Grn 30% Lab 15% | 34.2% |
| Stowmarket East | Ref | Ref 38% LD 35% Con 16% | — |
| Stowmarket West | Grn | Grn 44% Ref 35% Con 16% | — |
| Thedwastre North | Grn | Grn 36% Ref 30% Con 26% | — |
| Thedwastre South | Grn | Grn 31% Ref 31% Con 20% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2024 | Thurston | Con GAIN from Grn | Con 49% Grn 44% Lab 7% |
| 9 May 2024 | Chilton | Grn HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbeygate | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2023 Labour 39.6%vs Green 33.3% | - | 53.9% |
| Bardwell | Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 26.3% | 2019 Conservative 73.2%vs Reform 26.8% | - | 37.0% |
| Barningham | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Conservative 66.7%vs Labour 33.3% | - | 37.1% |
| Chilton | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Green 82.9%vs Conservative 17.1% | - | 28.9% |
| Combs Ford | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 35.2%vs Green 34.2% | - | 64.8% |
| Eastgate | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Labour 63.9%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 37.6% |
| Elmswell & Woolpit | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Green 82.5%vs Conservative 17.5% | - | 39.7% |
| Ixworth | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 39.2%vs Independent 34.1% | - | 36.1% |
| Minden | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 34.2% | - | 41.9% |
| Moreton Hall | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 33.4% | 2023 Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 48.3% | - | 27.7% |
| Onehouse | Labour 31.2%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Green 59.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 39.0% |
| Pakenham & Troston | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 53.4%vs Labour 46.6% | - | 31.0% |
| Rattlesden | Conservative 31.5%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.4%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 41.9% |
| Rougham | Conservative 43.1%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 66.1%vs Labour 33.9% | - | 37.2% |
| Southgate | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 55.6%vs Labour 30.2% | - | 46.3% |
| St Olaves | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Labour 53.0%vs Independent 25.1% | - | 28.1% |
| St Peter's | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2023 Green 73.7%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 35.1% |
| Stanton | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 32.8% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Stow Thorney | Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Green 65.0%vs Conservative 19.7% | - | 30.9% |
| The Fornhams & Great Barton | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 55.4%vs Labour 24.7% | - | 52.0% |
| Thurston | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Green 67.6%vs Conservative 19.3% | - | 45.4% |
| Tollgate | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2023 Labour 67.2%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 26.2% |
| Westgate | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 69.5%vs Labour 30.5% | - | 38.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | David Ruffley Bury St Edmunds MP | 16.6% | 47.5% | 26.4% | 12,380 | 69.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Jo Churchill Bury St Edmunds MP | 17.7% | 53.6% | 6.0% | 21,301 | 69.0%-0.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Jo Churchill Bury St Edmunds MP | 29.5% | 59.2% | 5.7% | 18,441 | 72.2%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jo Churchill Bury St Edmunds MP, pre-review boundary | 20.8% | 62.9% | 1.1% | 22,085 | 69.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Peter Prinsley | 32.9% | 30.0% | 6.2% | 1,452 | 64.8%-4.6 |
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bury St Edmunds (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 26.6vs 22.7
- ↑Leave58.6 / 56.9vs 53.2
- ↑Leave58.6 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave58.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave58.6 / 57.5vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 26.2vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave58.6 / 57.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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