Hereford and South Herefordshire
West Midlands · County constituency · Herefordshire, County of borough
About the Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency
Hereford and South Herefordshire is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Jesse Norman (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 32.6% to 29.8% for Labour, a majority of 1,279 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 30.9% and Reform UK on 26.5%, a margin of 4.3 points.
Who lives in Hereford and South Herefordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hereford and South Herefordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hereford and South Herefordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hereford and South Herefordshire within Herefordshire, County of
Hereford and South Herefordshire sits entirely within Herefordshire, County of Council. Herefordshire, County of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Herefordshire, County of | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2023 | Golden Valley South | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aylestone Hill | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Labour 37.9%vs Independent 25.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Belmont Rural | Labour 33.0%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 35.8%vs Independent 33.1% | - | 31.1% |
| Birch | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Green 45.1%vs Conservative 42.8% | - | 48.3% |
| Bobblestock | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 29.4%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 31.7% |
| Central | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2023 Green 46.4%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | - | 34.5% |
| College | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 29.5%vs Labour 28.5% | - | 28.3% |
| Dinedor Hill | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Conservative 38.9%vs Lib Dem 35.9% | - | 36.4% |
| Eign Hill | Labour 31.7%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Independent 38.4%vs Lib Dem 22.8% | - | 41.6% |
| Golden Valley North | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Conservative 46.6%vs Independent 39.2% | - | 50.4% |
| Golden Valley South | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Independent 52.3%vs Conservative 35.2% | - | 42.7% |
| Greyfriars | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Green 41.2%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | 33.2% |
| Hinton & Hunderton | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 22.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.9%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 20.8% |
| Kerne Bridge | Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 39.9%vs Independent 33.0% | - | 42.5% |
| Kings Acre | Conservative 30.8%vs Labour 30.4% | 2023 Independent 39.7%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 31.7% |
| Llangarron | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 27.5% | 2023 Conservative 54.2%vs Lib Dem 45.8% | - | 42.2% |
| Newton Farm | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Labour 32.4% | - | 19.8% |
| Penyard | Conservative 43.1%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Conservative 57.4%vs Lib Dem 42.6% | - | 41.9% |
| Red Hill | Labour 30.4%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.1%vs Conservative 35.9% | - | 28.7% |
| Ross East | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 22.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.5%vs Conservative 25.6% | - | 38.7% |
| Ross North | Conservative 28.4%vs Labour 24.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 37.8%vs Independent 33.8% | - | 31.0% |
| Ross West | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 36.0% |
| Saxon Gate | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | 22.9% |
| Stoney Street | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 28.3% | 2023 Independent 35.3%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 40.1% |
| Tupsley | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2023 Independent 76.9%vs Lib Dem 12.3% | - | 46.1% |
| Whitecross | Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Others 29.8%vs Lib Dem 26.0% | - | 27.3% |
| Widemarsh | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Labour 34.1% | - | 25.0% |
| Wormside | Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Conservative 41.5%vs Independent 31.3% | - | 38.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hereford and South Herefordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hereford and South Herefordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Jesse Norman | 7.2% | 46.2% | 41.1% | 2,481 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jesse Norman | 12.8% | 52.6% | 10.6% | 16,890 | 66.1%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jesse Norman | 23.8% | 53.5% | 7.0% | 15,013 | 71.0%+4.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jesse Norman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 19.9% | 61.7% | 13.3% | 19,321 | 65.0%-6.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Jesse Norman | 29.8% | 32.6% | 11.7% | 1,279 | 63.1%-1.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hereford and South Herefordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hereford and South Herefordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.4 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.1vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.4 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.0vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.4 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 27.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 25.5vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↑Leave60.4 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 26.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+27.5 / 28.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.8 / 24.9vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.4 / 57.9vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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