South West Wiltshire
South West · County constituency · Wiltshire
About the South West Wiltshire constituency
South West Wiltshire is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Dr Andrew Murrison (Conservative), MP since June 2001. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.8% to 26.8% for Labour, a majority of 3,243 votes on a 63.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.1% and Reform UK on 27.2%, a margin of 3.9 points.
Who lives in South West Wiltshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South West Wiltshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South West Wiltshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South West Wiltshire within Wiltshire
South West Wiltshire sits entirely within Wiltshire Council. Wiltshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethandune | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 26.5% | 2025 Conservative 39.4%vs Lib Dem 33.2% | - | 35.0% |
| Hilperton | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2025 Independent 70.7%vs Conservative 17.7% | - | 38.0% |
| Mere | Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 24.6% | 2025 Independent 64.3%vs Reform 13.8% | - | 46.0% |
| Southwick | Conservative 43.8%vs Labour 24.9% | 2025 Reform 38.4%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Trowbridge Adcroft | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 22.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 37.2%vs Reform 31.3% | - | 32.0% |
| Trowbridge Central | Labour 28.3%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2025 Lib Dem 42.2%vs Reform 26.1% | - | 27.0% |
| Trowbridge Drynham | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 28.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 44.3%vs Reform 28.8% | - | 31.0% |
| Trowbridge Grove | Conservative 33.4%vs Labour 23.7% | 2025 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Reform 24.3% | - | 31.0% |
| Trowbridge Lambrok | Labour 29.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2025 Lib Dem 63.3%vs Reform 25.9% | - | 33.0% |
| Trowbridge Park | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 20.7% | 2025 Reform 33.1%vs Conservative 31.7% | - | 35.0% |
| Trowbridge Paxcroft | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 27.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 44.2%vs Reform 30.2% | - | 30.0% |
| Warminster Broadway | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 29.1% | 2025 Conservative 40.1%vs Reform 28.7% | - | 32.0% |
| Warminster East | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 30.8% | 2025 Conservative 33.3%vs Reform 30.0% | - | 32.0% |
| Warminster North & Rural | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 26.6% | 2025 Conservative 53.0%vs Reform 25.6% | - | 31.0% |
| Warminster West | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 28.2% | 2025 Independent 29.4%vs Reform 29.1% | - | 28.0% |
| Westbury East | Conservative 29.9%vs Lib Dem 24.5% | 2025 Lib Dem 54.6%vs Reform 27.3% | - | 29.0% |
| Westbury North | Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2025 Reform 43.8%vs Lib Dem 38.3% | - | 27.0% |
| Westbury West | Conservative 28.6%vs Labour 25.4% | 2025 Reform 37.3%vs Independent 26.8% | - | 22.0% |
| Wylye Valley | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 26.1% | 2025 Conservative 54.1%vs Reform 20.4% | - | 40.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South West Wiltshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South West Wiltshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrew Murrison | 11.5% | 51.7% | 30.5% | 10,367 | 68.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Andrew Murrison | 13.5% | 52.7% | 10.6% | 18,168 | 70.7%+2.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Andrew Murrison | 26.5% | 60.0% | 9.8% | 18,326 | 71.2%+0.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Murrison 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.5% | 58.3% | 16.5% | 17,378 | 66.0%-5.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Murrison | 26.8% | 33.8% | 15.6% | 3,243 | 63.2%-2.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South West Wiltshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South West Wiltshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 65.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 31.2vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 67.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 30.7vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate28.6 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 66.1vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.