Rossendale and Darwen
North West · County constituency
About the Rossendale and Darwen constituency
Rossendale and Darwen is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Andy MacNae (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.9% to 28.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,628 votes on a 59.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.4% and Reform UK on 31.1%, a margin of 5.2 points.
Who lives in Rossendale and Darwen? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rossendale and Darwen vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rossendale and Darwen
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rossendale and Darwen within Rossendale and Blackburn with Darwen
Rossendale and Darwen crosses council boundaries: Rossendale (56%), Blackburn with Darwen (44%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rossendale | 56% | View projection › |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 44% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | Hareholme & Waterfoot | Grn GAIN from Lab | Grn 38% Ref 34% Lab 19% |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Whitworth | Ref GAIN from Local | Ref 48% Con 29% Lab 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn South & Lower Darwen | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Reform 56.0%vs Conservative 22.7% | Labour→Reform +34.2pp | 39.9% |
| Darwen East | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 24.8% | May 2026 Reform 45.2%vs Labour 27.9% | Labour→Reform +17.8pp | 30.4% |
| Darwen South | Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 29.8% | May 2026 Reform 51.0%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Reform +22.9pp | 40.8% |
| Darwen West | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Labour 37.5% | Labour→Reform +15.9pp | 43.0% |
| Goodshaw & Cribden | Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2024 Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 36.9% |
| Greenfield & Eden | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2024 Conservative 45.3%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 40.4% |
| Hareholme & Waterfoot | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2024 Labour 48.2%vs Green 27.4% | - | 32.5% |
| Helmshore | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2024 Conservative 52.4%vs Labour 34.3% | - | 45.5% |
| Longholme | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2024 Labour 54.9%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 31.2% |
| West Pennine | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 32.5% | May 2026 Reform 39.1%vs Conservative 29.1% | Conservative→Reform +13.6pp | 51.8% |
| Whitewell & Stacksteads | Labour 46.0%vs Reform 22.5% | 2024 Green 55.8%vs Labour 33.2% | - | 36.8% |
| Whitworth | Labour 40.8%vs Reform 26.1% | 2024 Others 40.5%vs Conservative 18.0% | - | 46.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rossendale and Darwen at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rossendale and Darwen at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Jake Berry | 32.2% | 41.8% | 18.1% | 4,493 | 64.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jake Berry | 35.1% | 46.6% | 1.6% | 5,654 | 66.4%+2.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jake Berry | 44.4% | 50.8% | 3.1% | 3,216 | 69.2%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jake Berry 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 36.6% | 56.3% | 4.2% | 9,834 | 66.9%-2.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Andy MacNae | 40.9% | 28.3% | 2.8% | 5,628 | 59.9%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rossendale and Darwen
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rossendale and Darwen. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave58.9 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 65.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.9 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.9 / 56.9vs 53.2
- ↑Leave58.9 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 65.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.9 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 65.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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