Constituency profile

The Wrekin

West Midlands · County constituency

Mark Pritchard MP
Sitting MP

Mark Pritchard

Conservative

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
59.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +7.4pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +1.0pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
MidlandsLeave-leaning

About the The Wrekin constituency

The Wrekin is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Mark Pritchard (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 32.6% to 30.9% for Labour, a majority of 883 votes on a 63.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.6% and the Conservatives on 28.6%, a margin of 1.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in The Wrekin? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
59.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
29.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.3%
UK average ~28%

How did The Wrekin vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 883 votes (1.7pp) · turnout 63.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of The Wrekin

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

The Wrekin within Telford and Wrekin and Shropshire

The Wrekin crosses council boundaries: Telford and Wrekin (75%), Shropshire (25%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Telford and Wrekin
48 LSOAs
75%
Shropshire
16 LSOAs
25%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
15 Nov 2024Hadley & Leegomery
Telford and Wrekin
Lab HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Admaston & BrattonConservative 40.6%vs Labour 24.5%2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 33.4%-46.6%
AlbrightonConservative 34.6%vs Reform 25.4%2017 Conservative 67.8%vs Independent 32.2%-35.7%
Apley CastleConservative 30.7%vs Labour 26.7%2023 Lib Dem 64.3%vs Conservative 18.4%-45.4%
Arleston & CollegeLabour 48.0%vs Conservative 21.6%2023 Labour 76.2%vs Conservative 18.3%-36.6%
CheswardineConservative 35.2%vs Reform 24.6%2021 Conservative 69.5%vs Independent 30.5%-31.1%
Church Aston & LilleshallConservative 46.6%vs Labour 21.8%2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Labour 23.4%-44.9%
DonningtonLabour 35.7%vs Conservative 29.3%2023 Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 45.6%-28.4%
EdgmondConservative 44.2%vs Labour 25.8%2023 Conservative 62.6%vs Labour 27.4%-41.7%
ErcallConservative 35.4%vs Labour 33.7%2023 Labour 54.5%vs Conservative 39.6%-51.5%
Ercall MagnaConservative 43.9%vs Labour 20.6%2023 Conservative 59.6%vs Lib Dem 28.7%-38.1%
Hadley & LeegomeryLabour 43.3%vs Conservative 24.5%2023 Labour 61.6%vs Independent 20.2%-31.4%
Haygate & ParkLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 28.1%2023 Labour 58.9%vs Conservative 31.1%-38.8%
HodnetConservative 36.6%vs Reform 25.6%2021 Conservative 61.5%vs Independent 26.1%-32.2%
MuxtonConservative 39.3%vs Labour 28.5%2023 Independent 39.6%vs Conservative 34.8%-35.3%
Newport EastConservative 28.9%vs Labour 28.3%2023 Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 25.5%-39.5%
Newport NorthConservative 38.3%vs Labour 24.6%2023 Conservative 50.7%vs Lib Dem 33.1%-45.2%
Newport SouthConservative 33.3%vs Labour 25.0%2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 35.6%-38.1%
Newport WestLabour 31.5%vs Conservative 29.9%2023 Independent 66.5%vs Labour 15.3%-36.8%
Shawbirch & DothillLabour 28.4%vs Conservative 26.9%2023 Lib Dem 60.8%vs Labour 20.4%-39.3%
Shifnal NorthLabour 27.9%vs Reform 27.6%2021 Independent 57.3%vs Conservative 42.7%-30.6%
Shifnal South and CosfordConservative 32.9%vs Reform 26.2%2021 Conservative 56.1%vs Independent 25.3%-37.2%
WrockwardineConservative 43.1%vs Labour 26.6%2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 25.7%-43.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for The Wrekin at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won The Wrekin at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdMark Pritchard27.1%47.7%17.4%4.5% UKIP-3.3%9,45070.1%
2015Con holdMark Pritchard26.0%49.7%4.3%16.8% UKIP3.2%-10,74368.9%-1.2
2017Con holdMark Pritchard36.1%55.4%2.7%3.3% UKIP1.6%0.8%9,56472.2%+3.3
2019notionalConservative winnerMark Pritchard 2019 MP, pre-review boundary24.3%64.7%8.0%-2.9%0.1%21,17368.9%-3.3
2024Con holdMark Pritchard30.9%32.6%9.5%19.8% Ref6.1%1.1%88363.4%-5.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like The Wrekin

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to The Wrekin. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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