Crewe and Nantwich
North West · County constituency · Cheshire East borough
About the Crewe and Nantwich constituency
Crewe and Nantwich is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Connor Naismith (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.1% to 23.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,727 votes on a 60.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.9% and Reform UK on 31.7%, a margin of 4.2 points.
Who lives in Crewe and Nantwich? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Crewe and Nantwich vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Crewe and Nantwich
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Crewe and Nantwich within Cheshire East
Crewe and Nantwich sits entirely within Cheshire East Council. Cheshire East was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cheshire East | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2024 | Crewe West | Lab HOLD | — |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Crewe Central | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe Central | Labour 47.5%vs Reform 20.2% | 2023 Labour 54.7%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 17.4% |
| Crewe East | Labour 49.1%vs Reform 21.9% | 2023 Labour 49.5%vs Others 24.6% | - | 24.0% |
| Crewe North | Labour 45.3%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Labour 51.8%vs Others 35.8% | - | 26.0% |
| Crewe South | Labour 46.4%vs Reform 22.3% | 2023 Labour 62.4%vs Conservative 20.0% | - | 20.8% |
| Crewe St Barnabas | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 37.8% | - | 20.1% |
| Crewe West | Labour 46.0%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Labour 61.6%vs Others 20.2% | - | 20.8% |
| Haslington | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 50.4%vs Labour 41.6% | - | 34.2% |
| Leighton | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Labour 36.7%vs Independent 33.1% | - | 26.5% |
| Nantwich North and West | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 22.7% | 2023 Independent 31.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 41.8% |
| Nantwich South and Stapeley | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 47.8% | - | 39.2% |
| Shavington | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 40.8%vs Independent 34.6% | - | 30.1% |
| Willaston and Rope | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 54.1%vs Labour 35.6% | - | 41.2% |
| Wistaston | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2023 Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 44.4% | - | 39.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Crewe and Nantwich at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Crewe and Nantwich at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Edward Timpson | 34.0% | 45.8% | 15.0% | 6,046 | 64.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Edward Timpson | 37.7% | 45.0% | 2.8% | 3,620 | 67.3%+3.2 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Laura Smith | 47.1% | 47.0% | 2.4% | 48 | 69.7%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kieran Mullan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 39.2% | 50.8% | 5.1% | 5,816 | 65.8%-3.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Connor Naismith | 44.1% | 23.5% | 4.8% | 9,727 | 60.2%-5.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Crewe and Nantwich
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Crewe and Nantwich. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.3 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.4 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 58.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.4 / 30.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.4 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.4 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.4 / 27.3vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.