Constituency profile

Corby and East Northamptonshire

East Midlands · County constituency · North Northamptonshire borough

Lee Barron MP
Sitting MP

Lee Barron

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
County constituency, North Northamptonshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
60.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +8.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +4.1pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Corby and East Northamptonshire constituency

Corby and East Northamptonshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands, covering most or all of North Northamptonshire. The sitting MP is Lee Barron (Labour), first elected in July 2024.

At the 2024 general election, Labour won Corby and East Northamptonshire with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 29.6%, a majority of 6,331 votes. Turnout was 63.0%.

If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 32.1% and Labour on 28.0% in Corby and East Northamptonshire, a margin of 4.1 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.

Demographically, Corby and East Northamptonshire is a strongly Leave-voting area (an estimated 60.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 26.8% of residents hold a degree, 64.3% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 40 (2021 Census).

Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).

Who lives in Corby and East Northamptonshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
60.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
64.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Corby and East Northamptonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 6,331 votes (12.8pp) · turnout 63.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Corby and East Northamptonshire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Corby and East Northamptonshire within North Northamptonshire

The Westminster constituency of Corby and East Northamptonshire sits entirely within North Northamptonshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and North Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Northamptonshire
67 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Corby and East Northamptonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Corby and East Northamptonshire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabLouise Bagshawe Corby MP38.7%42.2%14.4%--4.7%1,89569.5%
2015predecessorCon holdTom Pursglove Corby MP38.5%42.8%2.6%13.7% UKIP2.4%-2,41270.4%+0.9
2017predecessorCon holdTom Pursglove Corby MP44.7%49.2%2.6%2.5% UKIP1.0%-2,69072.3%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerTom Pursglove Corby MP, pre-review boundary38.5%54.6%6.8%--0.1%8,67670.2%
2024Lab gain from ConLee Barron42.4%29.6%4.4%17.7% Ref5.1%0.9%6,33163.0%-7.2

Corby and East Northamptonshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Corby (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Corby and East Northamptonshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Corby and East Northamptonshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

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