Constituency profile

Corby and East Northamptonshire

East Midlands · County constituency · North Northamptonshire borough

Lee Barron MP
Sitting MP

Lee Barron

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
County constituency, North Northamptonshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
60.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +8.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +1.4pp
vs Reform UK 28.7%
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Corby and East Northamptonshire constituency

Corby and East Northamptonshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Lee Barron (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 29.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,331 votes on a 63.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 30.1% and Reform UK on 28.7%, a margin of 1.4 points.

Who lives in Corby and East Northamptonshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
60.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
64.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Corby and East Northamptonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 6,331 votes (12.8pp) · turnout 63.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Corby and East Northamptonshire

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Corby and East Northamptonshire within North Northamptonshire

Corby and East Northamptonshire sits entirely within North Northamptonshire Council. North Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Northamptonshire
67 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Corby RuralLabour 41.6%vs Conservative 32.0%2021 Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 37.8%--
Corby WestLabour 53.0%vs Conservative 22.6%2021 Labour 68.7%vs Conservative 27.1%--
IrthlingboroughLabour 42.2%vs Conservative 30.8%2021 Conservative 55.9%vs Labour 33.6%--
KingswoodLabour 50.2%vs Conservative 21.4%2021 Labour 64.1%vs Conservative 29.3%--
LloydsLabour 54.8%vs Conservative 20.1%2021 Labour 69.8%vs Conservative 23.1%--
OakleyLabour 42.0%vs Conservative 24.8%2021 Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 36.0%--
OundleConservative 38.2%vs Labour 31.8%2021 Conservative 58.6%vs Lib Dem 22.8%--
RaundsConservative 38.9%vs Labour 32.3%2021 Conservative 71.2%vs Labour 20.1%--
ThrapstonConservative 39.5%vs Labour 32.0%2021 Conservative 57.0%vs Independent 16.1%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Corby and East Northamptonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Corby and East Northamptonshire at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabLouise Bagshawe Corby MP38.7%42.2%14.4%--4.7%1,89569.5%
2015predecessorCon holdTom Pursglove Corby MP38.5%42.8%2.6%13.7% UKIP2.4%-2,41270.4%+0.9
2017predecessorCon holdTom Pursglove Corby MP44.7%49.2%2.6%2.5% UKIP1.0%-2,69072.3%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerTom Pursglove Corby MP, pre-review boundary38.5%54.6%6.8%--0.1%8,67670.2%
2024Lab gain from ConLee Barron42.4%29.6%4.4%17.7% Ref5.1%0.9%6,33163.0%-7.2

Corby and East Northamptonshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Corby (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Corby and East Northamptonshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Corby and East Northamptonshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.