Portsmouth North
South East · Borough constituency · Portsmouth
About the Portsmouth North constituency
Portsmouth North is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Amanda Martin (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.9% to 33.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 780 votes on a 59.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 27.5% and Reform UK on 27.3%, a margin of 0.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Portsmouth North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Portsmouth North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Portsmouth North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Portsmouth North within Portsmouth
Portsmouth North sits entirely within Portsmouth Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 100% | 2026 result › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baffins | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Reform 38.4% | Labour→Lib Dem +27.0pp | 47.5% |
| Copnor | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 35.2% | May 2026 Reform 38.4%vs Conservative 26.0% | Labour→Reform +22.5pp | 43.6% |
| Cosham | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 32.4% | May 2026 Reform 42.5%vs Labour 39.5% | Labour→Reform +11.2pp | 44.0% |
| Drayton and Farlington | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 30.1% | May 2026 Conservative 35.8%vs Reform 35.3% | Conservative share -4.4pp | 49.6% |
| Hilsea | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 33.8% | May 2026 Reform 49.2%vs Green 13.7% | Labour→Reform +24.5pp | 41.8% |
| Nelson | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 25.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.1%vs Reform 37.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.5pp | 35.7% |
| Paulsgrove | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 57.5%vs Conservative 13.7% | Labour→Reform +29.4pp | 34.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Portsmouth North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Portsmouth North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Penny Mordaunt | 27.8% | 44.3% | 20.1% | 7,289 | 62.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Penny Mordaunt | 23.8% | 47.0% | 6.2% | 10,537 | 62.1%-0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Penny Mordaunt | 33.7% | 54.8% | 5.5% | 9,965 | 66.1%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Penny Mordaunt 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 27.0% | 61.4% | 7.4% | 15,780 | 63.9%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Amanda Martin | 34.8% | 33.0% | 7.3% | 780 | 59.0%-4.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Portsmouth North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Portsmouth North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave63.7 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Employed61.7 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.7 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↑Employed61.7 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.7 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↑Employed61.7 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.7 / 63.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 24.4vs 33.7
- ↑Employed61.7 / 60.8vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.5 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.7 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.7 / 62.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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